Euro rallies stall out yet again above 20-Day SMA. Dollar/Yen showing potential for hourly head & shoulders top. Cable eyeing retest of 1.3500 trend lows. Dollar/Swiss long trade triggered at 1.1465; stops trailed. Dollar/Cad searching for fresh higher low ahead of next upside. Australian Dollar bullish reversal day fails to impress. New Zealand Dollar consolidating ahead of next drop.
EUR/USD
| EUR/USD – The market has broken back above the 20-Day SMA on Tuesday and a close above will be viewed as significant after the pair had been well capped below the 20-Day for the entire 2009. However, this seems unlikely with the market pulling back into the close to once again keep the bear trend firmly intact. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL. |
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USD/JPY
| USD/JPY – Has been well propped on dips to the 97.00 area with the market now consolidating in bullish fashion ahead of the next upside break beyond 99.70. Above 99.70 should then open a push towards the double bottom objective in the 104.00 area. However, daily studies remain overbought and buying at current levels does not offer compelling risk/reward. Back under 96.55 (potential hourly head & shoulders neckline/6Mar low) delays bullish structure and exposes a 94.60 retest. Tuesday’s bearish price action suggests the market could be looking to retest the neckline area into Wednesday. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL. |
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GBP/USD
| GBP/USD – The market has collapsed through the previous weekly consolidation lows to now expose a full 100% retracement of the 1.3500-1.4990 move. Look for a retest and break of 1.3500 over the coming sessions with a push below to expose next key support in the 1.3000 area (July 1985 lows). Back above 1.4305 is now required to delay the bearish structure and shift focus back on topside. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.
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USD/CHF
| USD/CHF – The latest dips have once again been well supported in the 1.1400’s with the market bouncing back above 1.1500 into the afternoon to keep the prominent range trade intact. The 100-Day SMA was breached earlier but a clear close below the latter would be required to shift bias. Fresh longs have been triggered by 1.1465 and we now target a push back towards the range highs over the coming sessions. Position: LONG @1.1465 FOR A 1.1850 OBJECTIVE, REVISED STOP @1.1390.
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