European Stocks Hint Bearish Reversal is Approaching

Published May 4th, 2009 - 09:34 GMT
Al Bawaba
Al Bawaba

Index Strat Risk Target
FTSE      
DAX       
CAC 40      


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FTSE 100                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             

Long-term Technical Outlook





There is little change to the outlook for the FTSE 100.  5 waves down from the 2007 high are complete and A 3 wave advance is underway now.  Short term structure is not clear (everything from the March low).  Let the pattern play out and we’ll look to identify the end of the correction.




Short-Term Technical Outlook


The FTSE is showing signs of topping with an inverted hammer just below a possible triple top at 430131. Further, prices are taking on a rising wedge formation, a setup typically indicative of a bearish reversal. Support is seen at 408957, the wedge bottom, and bolstered by the 100-day moving average.


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DAX 30                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 

Long-term Technical Outlook





A 5 wave decline is also complete in the DAX.  Short term structure is not clear (everything from the March low).  Let the pattern play out and we’ll look to identify the end of the correction.



Short-Term Technical Outlook




German shares are showing an inverted hammer just below resistance at the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement level. A downswing from here would target support at the intersection of the 61.8% Fib and the bottom of a rising channel that has contained prices since early March.


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CAC 40                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 _


Long-term Technical Outlook




In examining the CAC 40 pattern from the 2007 high, it is possible to count 5 waves down with wave 5 as an ending diagonal.  The diagonal is clear on this chart.  5th wave diagonals are almost always fully retraced fairly quickly.  As is the case with other European indexes, near term structure is not clear.



Short-Term Technical Outlook