As of June 8, 2006 (5:00 EST, 10:00 GMT)
Latest Release Dated 06/8/06 (10:00 GMT)
· EUR/USD Speculators Remain Net Long, Making 1.2550 a Possible Target
· GBP/USD Ratio Flips from Short to Long Confirming Recent Top in GBP/USD
· USD/CHF Ratio Has Remained Net Long Since April 4th
· USD/JPY Ratio Remains Net Short, Signaling More Gains Ahead for USD/JPY
Historical Charts of Speculative Positioning
The ratio of longs to shorts in the EUR/USD is +1.61 which is within the extreme +/- 3 range. The EUR/USD ratio has been flipping back and forth for the past 2 weeks as the currency pair consolidates above 1.27. The killing of extremist al-Zarqawi has injected a great deal of dollar optimism into the market by pushing the EUR/USD below 1.27 towards 1.2650. On a week to week basis, the EUR/USD ratio remains solidly net long, shielding traders from the inter-week whipsaws and giving them a clean short signal. Positioning has remained relatively unchanged with total positioning rising by only 3.9 percent. Short positions increased by 1.4 percent while long positions increased by 5.5 percent to a 7 week high. With the EUR/USD ratio still net long and the USD/CHF ratio net long as well, more losses are in store for the EUR/USD but once again they will probably be limited .
The ratio of longs to shorts in the GBP/USD is +1.24, which is within the extreme +/- 3 range. After having remained net short for 7 weeks, the GBP/USD ratio has finally flipped from to net long and has remained so for 48 hours. The flip is beginning to prove to be real and could signal a more significant top in the GBP/USD. Total positions increased 4.9 percent over the past week with short positions falling by 14.9 percent and long positions rising by 29 percent. If the ratio continues to remain net long, we could see more losses in the GBP/USD.
The ratio of longs to shorts in USD/CHF is +1.67, which is within the extreme +/- 3 range. The ratio has remained mostly net long for 2 months now and for the past month, the currency pair has been consolidating. The mix of positioning has decreased modestly, falling by 3.4 percent with short positions remaining unchanged and long positions decreasing by 4.9 percent. Unless the ratio flips, it is still conflicting with the EUR/USD signal, indicating that losses in the single currency could remain limited.
