Qatar’s economy is projected to gain momentum in the second half (H2) of 2019 driven mainly by greater public spending and higher gas production, FocusEconomics has said in its latest report.
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Focusing on 2020, the report said, the country’s growth will likely pick up on a stronger energy sector as the Barzan gas facility comes online.
According to FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast-Middle East & North Africa for October report, Qatar’s economy likely to have softened in the second quarter, after a recovery in the energy sector drove a slight acceleration in the first quarter.
Turning to the third quarter, the report said, available data points to acceleration.
“In July, annual industrial production grew at the fastest pace since August 2018, annual private sector credit growth surged, while building permits also jumped month-on-month,” it said.
Moreover, the report said, the non-oil sector PMI recovered firmly in August that bodes well for Qatar’s economic growth ahead.
FocusEconomics panelists see growth of 1.9 percent in 2019 and 2.5 percent in 2020, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast.
The country’s economic growth will further accelerate to 2.7 percent in 2021 and 2.8 percent in 2022, the report said.
Consumer prices were flat in annual terms in August, the report said adding inflation should return next year as the expected implementation of a 5 percent VAT in January 2020 will add upward pressure.
Moreover, an expected pick-up in economic activity and recent signs of a recovery in housing prices should also stoke prices next year.
“Our panelists expect average consumer prices to fall 0.3 percent in 2019, before increasing 2 percent in 2020, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast,” the report said.
The report indicated that the GDP per capita in Qatar will increase from $70,550 in 2019 to $80,098 in 2022.
According to the annual data released as part of the report, the overnight lending rate in the country would continue to rise from the current level and reach up to 4.81 percent by 2023.
The Qatari riyal will continue to be pegged at $3.64 in the years to come, the report said.
The country would witness a sustained increase in both imports and exports in the coming years.
While the merchandise exports from the country are expected to rise from $80.2 billion in 2019 to $92.8 billion in 2023, the report said, merchandise imports would increase from $34.8 billion in 2019 to $41.8 billion in 2023.
FocusEconomics, a leading provider of economic analysis, has also forecast that Qatar’s trade balance would rise from $45.5 billion in 2019 to $51 billion in 2023.
The report has projected that Qatar’s current account balance will account for 6.3 percent of the total GDP in 2019.
Qatar’s current account balance turned positive in 2017 and reached $16.6 billion in 2018, the report said, adding that it will continue to remain in the positive territory for the next four years.
