1. CADJPY
2. CHFJPY
3. NZDJPY
CADJPY CAD/JPY has plummeted from the upper end of a 7 month range, breaking below support from daily lows at 102.08 and currently testing the 50% fibo of 98.24-104.40 at 101.32. The decline from 104.17 (7/5 high) is currently correcting the rapid decline to yesterdays low at 101.06. To complete a 5 wave decline, the pair needs to break below the 101.06 low even for just a moment. Support is strong though with the 200 day SMA at 101.09, and the 6/5 and 6/6 lows at 101.11. A break lower could test the 61.8% fibo of 98.24-104.40 at 100.60 before a larger correction of strength takes place. Another target would be 100.98 which is where the initial wave 1decline from 104.17-103.31 would equal wave 5 (beginning at 101.83).
CHFJPY CHF/JPY broke an important supporting trendline on the daily (from 2/27 low at 87.63) and has since found support at the confluence of the 50 day SMA / lower Bollinger band (daily) at 92.45. The pair is nearing resistance at the 38.2% fibo of 94.04-92.45 at 93.06. A continued correction higher would probe the 50% fibo at 93.24. Strength to one of these levels is likely in order to complete a 3 wave correction before price can head lower and test the 92.45 low.
NZDJPY NZD/JPY continues to head higher after bottoming on 6/28 at 68.90. The pair is rapidly approaching resistance from the confluence of the 7/5 high / 38.2% fibo of 72.34-68.89 at 70.20/22. A break higher exposes a resisting trendline / 50% fibo at 70.62. the trendline must hold as resistance in order to keep the immediate bearish bias in tact. A break above the tredline could see the pair test the 78.6% fibo at 71.60 (also 6/20 and6/22 highs). With hourly oscillators oversold, a short term dip is certainly possible.
Glossary of Terms
CCI(20) 20 day Commodity Channel Index
> 0 bullish
0 > bearish
> 100 extremely bullish
-100 > - extremely bearish
RSI(14) 14 day Relative Strength Index
> 50 bullish
50 > bearish
> 70 overbought
30 > - oversold
MACD ? - MACD slope (MACD MACD[1])
> 0 bullish
0 > - bearish
Mom(8) 8 day Momentum (shorter-term direction)
> 0 bullish
0 > - bearish
ATR(14) 14 day Average True Range (volatility)
Medium 75th percentile* > ATR(14) > 25th percentile*
High - > 75th percentile*
Low 25th percentile* >
ADX(14) 14 day Average Directional Index (directional strength)
> 30 strong
30 > - weak
*measured against past 3 months
