The Lebanese economy is barely growing, with forecast findings showing heightened levels of pessimism in recent months, with growth forecasts for 2015 falling to 1.5% in the Q2 survey from 2% at the start of the year, Economena Analytics, a specialized economic information provider, said in its Lebanese Economic Outlook (LEO) for the second quarter of 2015.
None of the surveyed economists expect real estate transactions or prices to rise in the next 12 months, while 10 of the 17 are projecting declines in both. Instead, growth will be primarily driven by public spending, banking, ICT, and restaurants, consensus forecasts showed.
Economists were generally more pessimistic than they were at the start of the year, especially after disappointing data in the first four months of the year. The political outlook has also become more uncertain, with the conflict in Syria showing no signs of abating and the domestic deadlock causing a virtual paralysis in fiscal policy.
LEO is an economic forecasting survey of the expectations of leading Lebanese economists on the performance of economic sectors and principal macroeconomic indicators. It is released on a quarterly basis by Economena and is available free of charge to the public through the Economena User Station on www.economena.com.
Demand for sector-level forecasts has increased substantially in recent years, especially as insecurity in the region brings about elevated levels of uncertainty for investors and policymakers. The LEO survey helps investors and business managers set strategies and manage risk using consensus views of Lebanon's leading professional economists.
