The Middle East will need an additional of 3,130 airplanes worth $725 billion (Dh2.66 trillion), hiring around 231,000 workforce including pilots, technicians and cabin crew over the next two decades mainly owing to population and tourism growth, according to new forecasts released at the Dubai Airshow 2019.
Randy Tinseth, vice president for Marketing at Boeing Commercial Airplanes, said that the region will need 64,000 new pilots, 65,000 new technicians, and 102,000 cabin crew over the next 20 years to meet the demands of the growth in the aviation market.
The US aircraft manufacturer forecast 100-plus new long-haul routes in 10 years, 80 per cent of which are flown by Boeing's wide body aircraft. The region also boasts a 46 per cent share of the forecasted deliveries in the wide body segment, the highest of any region. In addition, the airlines will invest $790 billion in commercial aviation services by 2038.
On Sunday, Airbus forecast demand for 3,240 new passenger and freight aircraft for the Middle East. It predicts demand for 1,630 small aircraft, 480 for medium-sized aircraft, and 1,130 for large aircraft. In terms of new jobs, the region needs over 50,000 new pilots and nearly 52,000 new technicians over the next 20 years.
"The commercial aviation services market as a whole is valued at some $515 billion over the next 20 years in the region, principally in services optimising and maintaining aircraft availability such as maintenance, material management, technicians training and system upgrades, followed by flight operations services including pilot training or Air Traffic Management solutions, and finally passenger services like cabin upgrades, connectivity and ticketing," said Remi Maillard, senior vice-president for Airbus Services.
Globally, Boeing projected demand for 44,000 airplanes and $16 trillion commercial aviation value over the next two decades. It foresees $30 billion in net profit for airlines for 2019, while around 9,100 new wide body airplanes will be delivered over the next 20 years.
Randy Tinseth sees the aviation market as challenging this year and the cargo market as shrinking.
"It is important that this is not just economies growing here in the region, but also economies growing within eight-hour flights from here such as Southeast Asia, China, and India. Economic growth is important for the forecast and aviation sector and how the Middle East countries adapt to the fast growing economies in the other regions," Tinseth said.
He expects the US-China trade tariff row to come to pass as both sides are negotiating. "The deal should happen, and will happen; the economic growth cycle will go up, and it will do well for the aviation industry and the traffic will grow," he said.
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