“The trend is not just clear, it’s overwhelming,” says Ahmed Khalil, general manager of Toshiba Middle East and Africa. “Whichever way you look at the market, they spell the same result: desktops are in decline. Lifestyles are converging, with no clear definitions of where work ends and play starts, and this increased use of PCs in so-called “personal time” has meant users are increasingly relying on mobile technology. The answer to all these developments is the notebook PC.”
Khalil’s comments are backed up by cash register figures. Toshiba’s notebook sales grew in the Middle East by 46 per cent last year, while the PC market (including notebooks) grew by only 13.8 per cent up to 2004. These figures are backed up by the independent body IDC, whose research states that around 20 per cent of computers sold in the Middle East are notebooks – a number that will soar from last year’s figure of 450,000 to 1.3 million by 2009.
Khalil explains: “When the dotcom bubble burst and companies survived the Y2K date changeover scare, the IT industry got a big wake-up call. Blue-chip IT shares shrivelled, dotcoms collapsed, and corporations realised that IT was a capital expense like any other. As a result, IT projects came under sober scrutiny and many were written off.
“However, the public kept buying PCs, kept connecting to the internet and, as prices and connection costs drop, we are seeing a move to "always-on" broadband internet connections. Over the next 20 years, the online world will play a part in almost everything we do; this vision of a “wired world” is not compatible with desktops – it relies on notebook PCs.”
In laymen’s terms, Khalil explains that this means every time a new consumer considers a desktop, the “chance of conversion” to notebook increases. “Each year they become more affordable to a wider market, yet without sacrificing performance.
“If you look at the prices, an affordable notebook brimming with technology such as Toshiba’s Tecra A3 is going to cost you about Dhs 5,500. A quality desktop with similar high specifications is going to cost about Dhs 4,000. But then take a look at what you get for your money, and the notebook is so much more compelling. You have comparable technology, performance and robustness of a desktop, but get more connectivity options, and it’s portable.”
Modern notebook PCs have big clear LCD displays with a viewable area larger than most of the bulky CRT screens used in desktops. Batteries last comfortably for four to six hours, and can last over ten in certain configurations (the ultraportable Toshiba Portege M300 with the spare battery will can keep going for up to 11 hours).
“Four hours of battery life lets you work on your notebook on the plane from the Gulf to Cairo, use it in a meeting, and then work on it all the way back home without having to recharge,” says Khalil, “And if you add wireless Internet connectivity, the ability to be productive or stay entertained when out and about becomes a must-have for both travelling executives and private individuals.”
There is not much that doesn’t come standard in today’s laptops. They typically come with i.Link (Firewire), USB or Bluetooth and infrared wireless ports for connecting to accessories, as well as Fast Ethernet and WiFi for connecting to corporate networks or the Internet. Connectors to plug into televisions or projectors for presentations or home entertainment are becoming standard, as are higher and higher quality built-in speakers; meanwhile portability is key, with many popular notebook models weighing only 2.5kg or less.
New technologies for notebooks are coming thick and fast, such as ExpressCard, the smaller and faster alternative for PCMCIA (PC Card) slots. These have lower power consumption and support a wider array of devices, while making use of the same PCI Express technology that magnifies the performance of desktops.
“Technological advancements will focus on the integration and convergence of computing in all areas of our lives,” predicts Khalil. “The notebook world will continue to be a place of massive innovation, increasing functionality and falling prices, and once users experience mobile wireless with Internet access, they never want to go back.”
For ultra-low cost, the desktop PC industry will continue to dominate as notebooks will not be able to compete on entry-level pricing for the foreseeable future, as purely physical constraints are not as dominant as in the notebook, which allows shorter development times and easier hardware implementation. There are also innumerable low-end manufacturers producing cheap chipsets and cards for desktops, with high volumes and low assembly costs. On the very low end, desktops will stay cheaper.
“We will not see any major technical advancements in desktops,” says Khalil, “while we will see notebooks continuing to provide a better solution as we move further up the value chain, and the gap between the desktop and notebook closes on specifications and price.
“Even the opposite end of the spectrum, the ‘total entertainment’ machines, with high-end gaming and software capabilities, is being taken over by the notebook sector. Toshiba’s Qosmio series is an example of this: the machines marry computing power with advanced home entertainment and have raised the bar in terms of intelligently integrated products.”
What is clear is that more and more companies will discover that notebooks PCs allow their people to be more productive; home users will find that notebooks are simply more convenient, and executives will refuse to be separated from them.
“The desktop PC industry will likely split on the one hand into high-volume/low technology dumb terminals and cheap clones, and on the other hand the low-volume/high performance/high cost ‘power machines’ for gamers, technophiles and cluster applications,” says Khalil. “Notebooks will continue to take over the mid- to high-range sectors.”
Even a mid-level notebook today can run powerful business applications, encode and play music and video, manipulate large print-quality images and even play games a lot better than most desktop users would expect, because modern notebooks come with high performance graphics cards with plenty of memory.
“Ultimately most users of computers would like to be able to use them when going out for a meeting, or for showing some work or pictures to a friend, or for sharing movies, or to work on while away on business,” says Khalil. “Whether it’s for business or personal use, people will prefer to buy notebook PCs, because they do what only notebooks can do. They can go mobile.”
