The abnormally prolonged presidential election in America has finally come to an end and George.W.Bush will be the next president of the U.S. Perhaps Bush's victory can be perceived as the triumph of the American oil companies as well, for they stood firmly behind him during the entire episode.
Vice president elect Dick Cheney has served as the chief executive officer of Haliburton, world's largest oil field service company, for many years. Cheney was amongst the pioneers of anti-ILSA (Iran, Libya Sanction Act) campaigners.
During World Petroleum Congress in Calgary, Canada, held 11-15 June 2000, he openly criticized the policies of America concerning Iran.
Miss Condoleezza Rice, who has now been chosen to serve the next president as the national security advisor, was until recently a board member of Chevron. This major American oil company has always voiced their opposition to the oil sanction against Iran.
In fact Mr.Richard H.Matzke, vice-chairman of Chevron seriously questioned the credibility of the U.S. oil policies, especially against Iran, during a conference in London last July. The conference was initiated by the Institute for International Energy Studies.
The American oil companies have always maintained that the U.S. oil policies regarding Iran, whether directly related to investment in Iran or in the CIS, has imposed great losses on them.
Generally speaking the Clinton administration has kind of ignored issues related to energy, the consequences of which surfaced recently.
Towards the end of President Bush's (senior) term, major American oil companies proposed that the price of oil for domestic market be fixed at 25 d/b.
And if the world prices were lower, then for all imported oil a tax scheme be levied so as to increase the price of the imported volume to reach 25 d/b. This was mainly aimed at allowing the domestic producers to compete with the imports.
There remained no time for President Bush to pursue the issue and during Clinton era such a proposal went largely unheeded and the result was that the domestic oil production in the U.S. dropped from 7.4 mb/d in 1991 to less than 6 mb/d in 1999.
It may be concluded that, insofar as energy and oil issues are concerned, the Clinton era functioned very badly and the ignorance and weakness of the energy secretary of his administration played a pivotal role in the affair.
In view of above points, obviously the American oil companies have now great expectations of their candidate in the presidential race. Some of which can be summarized here:
1) That the new administration's policies be based on the support for the domestic production of oil and gas.
2) That the oil sanction policy against Iran Libya and Iraq be revised.
3)That irrational policy of support for the economically unviable routes for the transfer of oil and gas of the Central Asian countries to the world markets be dropped.
4) That U.S policy towards the Russian oil and gas industries be revised.
Obviously one can not expect a sudden and drastic change in the present policies. Undoubtedly the pressures from influential lobbies such as the Jewish lobby, who normally have different interests, will pose serious challenges against such changes.
However it can be predicted that in the course of the next few months there will be gradual developments in the direction of those expectations.
It is quite likely that the trend of the world oil prices will impose a fundamental paradox in the oil policies of the next administration.
No doubt a reasonable level of the prices will play an effective role in the trend of any investment in the relevant sector.
On the other hand if the investment opportunities for the American oil companies are created, then ultimately the prices can be expected to come under renewed pressure.
This could be one reason why the president elect has already spoken of the necessity of a constructive dialogue with OPEC.
If such a channel is opened in a comprehensive mode for all effective elements and sectors of the industry, then one can be hopeful of positive outcomes. This can be done only if all sides are treated equally and no pre-conditions are imposed.
For the next president of the U.S to succeed in the task, flexibility and moderation in the sanction issues is essential.
Source: www.iies.ac.ir
© 2001 Mena Report (www.menareport.com)
