| Indicators: | 1998 | 1999 | 2000e |
| Nominal GDP (US$bn) | 14.2 | 14.5 | 15.3 |
| GDP real growth rate (%) | -10.2 | 1.6 | 4.0 |
| Inflation (%) | -5.7 | 0.7 | 1.2 |
| Total Exports (US$bn) | 5.51 | 6.00 | -- |
| Total Imports (US$bn) | 5.68 | 5.80 | -- |
| Trade balance (US$bn) | -0.17 | 0.2 | -- |
e - Al-Bawaba forecasts
Political Outlook
Oman appears set to join the World Trade Organization shortly, a step which would remove its trade barriers. Earlier this year, Omani officials announced that the main obstacles to WTO membership had been eliminated and that pending secondary issues would soon be resolved. As part of its efforts to achieve WTO accession, Oman has signed bilateral trade pacts with the United States, the European Union, Japan, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Switzerland, Mexico and India.
Economic Outlook
April 6, 2000 marked the day in which Oman commenced exporting liquefied natural gas (LNG), with South Korea as its first partner. The first shipment -- 135,000 cubic meters – was directed to the Korea Gas Corp. under an agreement in which the latter will receive 4.1 million tonnes per annum of LNG for a 25-year period. Sales and purchase accords have also been reached with Japan's Osaka Gas, India's Dabhol Power Company, Coral Energy Resources of the United States and France's TotalFina-Elf.
These exports are being shipped from Qalhat, the site of a $2.5 billion plant -- the Sultanate's largest single industrial project. This venture, designed to abate Oman's dependence on fluctuating oil income, coincides with plans to finance an ambitious industrialization program with 850 billion cubic meters of LNG reserves.
For the moment, however, this Gulf state continues to depend on crude and refined oil for 77 percent of its exports and 65 percent of government revenues. Last year, Oman's reliance on oil income worked in its favour. Aggregate exports rose 31 percent in 1999 to $7.3 billion from approximately $5.8 billion a year earlier. Additionally, high international oil prices caused last year's budget deficit to contract to $1.086 billion from a projected $1.639 billion. As a result, analysts expect this year's increased government expenditure to boost the economy and encourage industrial financing. Bankers anticipate the government to channel most of the additional spending to infrastructure and industrial projects. Plans include the construction of an aluminum smelter, a petrochemical complex and a refinery in Sohar.
Furthermore, new investment legislation should provide foreigners with enhanced opportunities to capitalize on Oman's ambitious expansion plans. The government is seriously considering allowing up to 70 percent foreign ownership of local businesses, a significant liberalization from the present 49 percent restriction. Such a move would be consistent with the Sultanate's review of its privatization process, which also aims to create a competitive commercial environment by further enhancing transparency and facilitating investor involvement.
Conclusion
Oman's first shipment of LNG signifies the inception of a lucrative source of export revenues that will last well into the future. As the Sultanate seeks to diversify its economy, it should benefit from imminent breakthroughs in its investment and trade legislation. Moreover, the country's strategic location at the mouth of the Persian Gulf gives it an important advantage over competition in Yemen and Dubai in the bid to become a regional trading hub. Foreigners should keep a close eye on Oman's investment law; anticipated reforms will create abundant opportunities in its industrial sector.
© 2000 Mena Report (www.menareport.com)
