Emirates NBD Dubai Economy Tracker

Press release
Published July 9th, 2018 - 11:43 GMT
The survey covers the Dubai non-oil private sector economy, with additional sector data published for travel & tourism, wholesale & retail and construction.
The survey covers the Dubai non-oil private sector economy, with additional sector data published for travel & tourism, wholesale & retail and construction.

The health of the non-oil private sector in Dubai improved at a marked rate in June. Although the headline index fell from May’s recent peak, reflecting easing travel & tourism growth momentum, stronger expansions were registered in both the wholesale & retail and construction sectors. Furthermore, business confidence accelerated to a survey-record high in June amid a strong pipeline of new projects and work outstanding.

The seasonally adjusted Emirates NBD Dubai Economy Tracker Index – a composite indicator designed to give an accurate overview of operating conditions in the non-oil private sector economy – fell to 56.0 in June, from 57.6 in May. Despite the headline figure falling from that recorded in May, it remained at a level indicative of a marked expansion that was above the historical average.

Wholesale & retail was the strongest performer in June (58.6), followed by construction (57.1) and travel & tourism respectively (54.9).

A reading of below 50.0 indicates that the non-oil private sector economy is generally declining; above 50.0, that it is generally expanding. A reading of 50.0 signals no change.

The survey covers the Dubai non-oil private sector economy, with additional sector data published for travel & tourism, wholesale & retail and construction.

Commenting on the Emirates NBD Dubai Economy Tracker, Khatija Haque, Head of MENA Research at Emirates NBD, said:

“Despite the decline in the headline DET index in June, new work and output both increased at a sharp rate, reflecting strong demand.  The wholesale and retail trade sector performed particularly well last month, which may have been partly due to the Eid holidays.  The sharp improvement in business conditions in the construction sector supports our view that infrastructure investment will be an important driver of economic growth this year.”     

Key Findings

  • Strong contributions to growth from retail and construction
  • Business confidence hits survey-record high
  • Job creation remains muted amid cost cutting efforts

Business activity and employment        

Although business activity growth softened from May’s 40-month high, the pace of expansion remained sharp overall. Furthermore, the latest improvement extended the current phase of rising output that began in March 2016. Firms commonly cited favourable business conditions and strong inflows of new work as reasons behind higher business activity.

Job creation remained subdued in the latest survey. The rate of growth was fractional overall, matching that recorded in May. According to anecdotal evidence, some firms hired additional staff in anticipation of new project starts, although these were negated by those that reduced payroll numbers to cut costs.

Emirates NBD Dubai Economy Tracker Index™           
Seasonally adjusted, 50 = no-change

The health of the non-oil private sector in Dubai improved at a marked rate in June. Although the headline index fell from May’s recent peak, reflecting easing travel & tourism growth momentum, stronger expansions were registered in both the wholesale & retail and construction sectors. Furthermore, business confidence accelerated to a survey-record high in June amid a strong pipeline of new projects and work outstanding.

The seasonally adjusted Emirates NBD Dubai Economy Tracker Index – a composite indicator designed to give an accurate overview of operating conditions in the non-oil private sector economy – fell to 56.0 in June, from 57.6 in May. Despite the headline figure falling from that recorded in May, it remained at a level indicative of a marked expansion that was above the historical average.

Wholesale & retail was the strongest performer in June (58.6), followed by construction (57.1) and travel & tourism respectively (54.9).

A reading of below 50.0 indicates that the non-oil private sector economy is generally declining; above 50.0, that it is generally expanding. A reading of 50.0 signals no change.

The survey covers the Dubai non-oil private sector economy, with additional sector data published for travel & tourism, wholesale & retail and construction.

Commenting on the Emirates NBD Dubai Economy Tracker, Khatija Haque, Head of MENA Research at Emirates NBD, said:

“Despite the decline in the headline DET index in June, new work and output both increased at a sharp rate, reflecting strong demand.  The wholesale and retail trade sector performed particularly well last month, which may have been partly due to the Eid holidays.  The sharp improvement in business conditions in the construction sector supports our view that infrastructure investment will be an important driver of economic growth this year.”     

Key Findings

  • Strong contributions to growth from retail and construction
  • Business confidence hits survey-record high
  • Job creation remains muted amid cost cutting efforts

Business activity and employment        

Although business activity growth softened from May’s 40-month high, the pace of expansion remained sharp overall. Furthermore, the latest improvement extended the current phase of rising output that began in March 2016. Firms commonly cited favourable business conditions and strong inflows of new work as reasons behind higher business activity.

Job creation remained subdued in the latest survey. The rate of growth was fractional overall, matching that recorded in May. According to anecdotal evidence, some firms hired additional staff in anticipation of new project starts, although these were negated by those that reduced payroll numbers to cut costs.

Emirates NBD Dubai Economy Tracker Index™           
Seasonally adjusted, 50 = no-change

Background Information

Emirates NBD

Emirates NBD, the leading banking group in the region, was formed on 19 June 1963, when H.H. Late Sheikh Rashid bin Saeed Al Maktoum signed the Charter of Incorporation of the National Bank of Dubai (NBD) which became the first National Bank established in Dubai and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). With the blessings of H.H. Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum, Vice President and Prime Minister of the UAE and Ruler of Dubai, NBD merged with Emirates Bank International (EBI) on 06 March 2007, to form Emirates NBD, the largest banking group in the region by assets. On 16 October 2007, the shares of Emirates NBD were officially listed on the Dubai Financial Market (DFM). The merger between EBI and NBD to create Emirates NBD, became a regional consolidation blueprint for the banking and finance sector as it combined the second and fourth largest banks in the UAE to form a banking champion capable of delivering enhanced value across corporate, retail, private, Islamic and investment banking throughout the region.

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