Three Sportswear Giants, One World Cup

Every four years the World Cup turns into the biggest commercial moment in sport, and for Nike, Adidas and Puma it is showtime. Shirts fly off the shelves, retro kits find a new generation, and the ad campaigns live long in the memory of football fans.  

Start with the brand on the winning team's shirt. Since 1998, only once has the World Cup winner's kit maker also been the best-performing stock during the World Cup year. That was Puma back in 2006 when Italy beat France to lift the trophy. Every other tournament, the logo on the winner's shirt was outdone by a rival. Winning the World Cup and winning the market are rarely the same thing.  

The biggest share price moves have lined up with company turnarounds, not the football calendar. Puma’s best run came in 2002 and 2003, rising 93% and then 114%, but that was driven by Jochen Zeitz’s restructuring of the business. Adidas surged 62% in 2015, helped by the revival of the Stan Smith, not by anything that happened on the pitch.

Across the seven World Cups since 1998, Nike has been the best performer of the trio, and the only one to deliver a positive compounded return every year there was a World Cup. But at roughly 32% over 7 tournaments (7 years) it is hardly a trophy-winning performance.  

Which brings us to 2026. This time, the three giants will dress 37 of the 48 teams between them. Adidas leads with 14, Nike has 12, and Puma has 11.  

Nike has history on its side in World Cup years, and shareholders would love to see that repeat in 2026.  Shares are down 28% this year and sit 78% below their 2021 peak. Their latest earnings showed why the stock has been under pressure. Revenue was flat, margins slipped due to US tariffs, and Greater China struggled again. Digital revenue fell 9% as Nike deliberately pulled back on discounting to protect the brand.  

Puma is the surprise package, up 27% this year. The market has re-rated the turnaround story on the back of a solid first quarter, and Anta Sports moving to take a controlling stake. The caveat is that Puma is still loss-making on a trailing basis. The market is forward-looking, so investors are pricing in the recovery ahead, but Puma still needs to deliver.  

Adidas is the one in form. The stock is up around 5% on the year and rallied roughly 13% in May alone, its strongest month in nearly three years. Management believes the tournament could add more than €1 billion in revenue, and with 14 teams including Argentina and Spain, Adidas has more shirts to sell than anyone. The fact that the tournament is being held in Nike’s core market also gives Adidas a real opportunity to claw back ground in North America.  

The numbers are solid, too. First-quarter revenue rose 14%, with apparel demand running hot, and Adidas is also leaning hard on its higher-margin direct-to-consumer channels, its own stores and website, where it shares no margin with wholesalers. And unlike normal quarters, where discounts are often needed to clear stock, World Cup hype can help Adidas sell jerseys at full price. That means a jersey boom in the second and third quarters could flow much more directly into profit.  

According to Josh Gilbert, Lead Analyst at eToro,the bottom line is that the World Cup has not done much to help these stocks over the years. Share prices still follow earnings, margins and management execution. Nike needs support more than ever, but this year it looks like Adidas is the most likely to thrive.