Japanese Yen Slowly Weakens
British Protecting 1.8500
Swiss Franc Correction May Be Complete
Canadian Dollar Weakness Persists
Australian Dollar Makes Double Top
New Zealand Dollar Supported
EUR/USD EUR/USD may have completed a correction early this morning at 1.2604 which is initial support in the event of weakness. Additional weakness would probe the 50% fibo of 1.2456-1.2712 at 1.2585 (also the 7/20 low). That said, the corrective nature (3 waves) of the decline from 1.2712 keeps the near term bias bullish. Hourly RSI is above the midpoint of 50 and reinforces the bias. A break aboe the 1.2712 high would open up the door for a test of the 61.8% fibo of 1.2976-1.2456 at 1.2775. The 7/18 high at 1.2559 must hold as support in order to keep bullish prospects intact.
USD/JPY USD/JPY is little changed following yesterdays inside day. Price is supported by the 200 day SMAs at 116.25 (also the 61.8% fibo of 115.81-116.84). Price above the 116.25 level keeps the near term picture bullish. A break lower could challenge a supporting trendline on the daily at 114.58 (trendline increases about 8 pips per day). Resistance is at the confluence of Fridays high / 61.8% of 117.88-115.81 at 117.08/11 and the 7/19 high at 117.88. What is also interesting to note is the current positioning in JPY futures contracts. Speculators are short the largest amount of JPY since the report week of 2/21/2006. USD/JPY turned down from near 120.00 a few weeks after that report and tumbled to 110.00.
GBP/USD Cable weakened this morning to just below the 38.2% fibo of 1.8226-1.8597 at 1.8456 before bouncing 100 pips. Todays low at 1.8444 is immediate support and a break below there encounters support at the confluence of the 50% fibo / 10 and 20 day SMAs at 1.8399/1.8412. Dampening the bullish view is the fact that CCI on the daily crossed below 100 yesterday. This sometimes precedes major turning points. Still, the higher lows on the daily chart (1.8090 and 1.8176) keep the near term trend bullish.
USD/CHF USD/CHF looks to have completed a 3 wave correction up to 1.2485. The pair has also made a short term double top at 1.2485 with the last two days highs. 1.2485 is initial resistance with the 61.8% fibo of 1.2595-1.2348 at 1.2500 as additional resistance. The structure of the advance to 1.2485 is corrective (3 waves) and thus the downside is favored. A break below todays low at 1.2420 would expose the 61.8% fibo of 1.2348-1.2485 at the psychological 1.2400 figure. A break above the 1.2500 figure suggests that a deeper retracement of weakness is in effect.
USD/CAD USD/CADs advance was rejected yesterday at the 61.8% fibo of 1.1771-1.0737 at 1.1449. The pair has fallen back to the 1.1400 figure, which is where it trades now. As we have focused on and will continue to focus on the break above the ascending triangle at 1.1260/80 keeps the bias a bullish one. A short term supporting trendline from the 7/5 low at 1.1039 reinforces the outlook. A break above yesterdays high at 1.1456 probes the 4/13 and 4/17 highs at 1.1532/33.
AUD/USD The rally to .7563 has been a choppy one and has created a double top with the 7/13 high at .7565. RSI on the hourly shows slight bearish divergence. The divergence with MACD is more pronounced (see chart below). A break above the double top at .7565 could see a test of the 61.8% fibo of .7791-.7270 at .7592. If the double top holds, then the 7/20 and 7/21 lows at .7488/89 are support with a break lower exposing the 7/19 low at .7403.
NZD/USD Kiwi dipped below the supporting trendline (from the 6/28 low at .5927) but has since rallied back to above the .6250 level. Hourly RSI is approaching overbought levels but a lack of divergence decreases probability of a turn in price to the downside. Still, immediate resistance is at the 7/18 high of .6282 which could see the formation of a short term double top. A break above that area could see a rally to the 78.65 fibo of .6443-.5927 at .6332.
Glossary of Terms
CCI(20) 20 day Commodity Channel Index
andgt; 0 bullish
0 andgt; bearish
andgt; 100 extremely bullish
-100 andgt; - extremely bearish
RSI(14) 14 day Relative Strength Index
andgt; 50 bullish
50 andgt; bearish
andgt; 70 overbought
30 andgt; - oversold
MACD ? - MACD slope (MACD MACD[1])
andgt; 0 bullish
0 andgt; - bearish
Mom(8) 8 day Momentum (shorter-term direction)
andgt; 0 bullish
0 andgt; - bearish
ATR(14) 14 day Average True Range (volatility)
Medium 75th percentile* andgt; ATR(14) andgt; 25th percentile*
High - andgt; 75th percentile*
Low 25th percentile* andgt;
ADX(14) 14 day Average Directional Index (directional strength)
andgt; 30 strong
30 andgt; - weak
*measured against past 3 months
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