Resistance Slowing Stocks Bullish Momentum, But Upside Potential Remains

Published May 6th, 2009 - 04:06 GMT
Al Bawaba
Al Bawaba

Index Strat Risk Target
DJIA Long 7792 9860
NASDAQ    Long 827 1080
S&P500 Flat    




 

To review: “The decline from the October 2007 high is in 5 waves, therefore a multi-month countertrend 3 wave advance is underway. Fibonacci resistance does not begin until 8736.” Wave B within an A-B-C corrective advance from 6470 is complete at 7792. The Dow should rocket higher in wave C in the next few weeks. One possible target is 9864 (100% extension).



The Dow was slowed by resistance at 843 the 61.8% Fibo extension of the 9,654-6,470 decline. We may see a slight retracement at tat level before the blue chip index looks to extend its gains. 9,000 may be the next level where we see major resistance.


The S&P count is the same as the Dow count. A B wave is complete at 827. A target is 1086 (100% extension).


The S&P 500 has been slowed by resistance at the January 9th high of 910. Considering current momentum we could see a test of the January 6th high of 943 before any major retrace.


The Nasdaq is in the same position as the other US indexes although the short term pattern is not clear. The index is nearing the 38.2% of the entire decline from the 2007 top. A deeper corrective rally is likely though; perhaps to the 61.8% at 2094.


The Nasdaq has broken above resistance at the 38.2% Fibo level of 2,473 – 1,265 decline and the 200-Day SMA at 1,741. The next form of resistance is at 1,785-the November 4th high.