ALBAWABA – Despite the announced supply cuts from Russia and Saudi, Russian oil exports have climbed for a third week in a row, according to Bloomberg, citing their own data.
Russian oil exports in the week ending October 29 exceeded 3.64 million barrels a day, which is around 110 thousand barrels per day over the agreed Russo-Saudi supply target.
While the four-week average indicates a less volatile change, the sudden peak this last week could signal a shift in Russia’s position on the agreed supply cuts, as it marks a dramatic rise from four weeks ago.
The four-week average edged lower to 3.48 million barrels a day, down by about 20,000 barrels a day from the period to October 22. But Russian oil exports in the week ending September 24 stood at 2.99 million barrels per day.
In fact, Russian oil exports in the week ending October 29 exceeded those in the week ending September 24 by more than 650 thousand barrels per day.
Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said in August that Moscow will extend export cuts, by 300,000 barrels a day below Russia’s May-June average until the end of the year.
Russian oil exports are rising as output increases despite the agreed supply cut with Saudi Arabia - Shutterstock
Accordingly, Bloomberg calculations indicate that shipments through Russian ports should be running now at about 3.28 million barrels a day.
However, weekly Russian oil exports exceeded Moscow’s target by the most in four weeks, overshooting by about 360,000 barrels a day.
Rising Russian oil exports come even as the country’s oil refining rate climbed to a seven-week high last week, with runs up by 210,000 barrels a day in the seven days to October 25 from the previous week, Bloomberg reported.
Inflows to the Kremlin's war chest from its crude-export duty rose to $83 million in the seven days to October 29, while four-week average income jumped to $79.4 million, as reported by Bloomberg.
Rising oil prices and the rebound in flows are both contributing to the increase in receipts.
Notably, Russian refinery runs have improved, thanks to routine maintenance, boosting the country’s average daily processing capacity in October to 5.31 million barrels per day, according to Reuters.
Notably, that is still below Russia’s 5.38 million barrels per day levels in September, but maintenance operations are set to be completed next month and production is expected to pick up by then.
