Fundamental - <?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" />
This weeks data is likely to keep the Singapore Dolar in the aforementioned levels as the schedule of data is running thin. Sparking off the week will be the economys only pertinent report, the purchasing managers index. For the month of August expectations are for a continued expansionary suggestion following the previous weeks uptick in production?.<See report for more details>
Technicals
The USDSGD has consolidated and formed a triangle since hitting a low on 5/10 at 1.5604. It would take a break below the 8/10 low at 1.5671 to argue that the path of least resistance is again down. Immediate resistance is just above at the confluence of the 10 / 20 day SMA at 1.5749/51. A breakout is imminent as the Bollinger bands (daily) are tight and price is close to the apex of the aforementioned triangle. The alternate scenario is that USDSGD is forming a long term bottom. Long term fibo support from the 61.8% of the 1.3900-1.8556 May 1995 to December 2001 bull wave is at 1.5684. The decline from 1.8556 has stalled at this level and monthly RSI is oversold. A break above 1.6033 (June high) would turn conditions bullish.
Full Article
Rising on the week the Singapore Dollar gained against the greenback on improving fundamentals including several key reports on industrial production and money supply. The notion was most reflected in the underlying spot price that broke through he 1.5760 support floors that had kept the pair underpinned through the end of last week. Finally, being able to crack the barrier to the downside, the pair took out the 1.5740 support only to be seen consolidating between range bound barriers at the 1.5740 and 1.5720 figures. This weeks data is likely to keep the Singapore Dollar in the aforementioned levels as the schedule of data is running thin. Sparking off the week will be the economys only pertinent report, the purchasing managers index. For the month of August expectations are for a continued expansionary suggestion following the previous weeks uptick in production. As a result, although a consensus estimate is absent on the report, the figure is estimated to remain hovering the 51 figure seen in the month of July. Released simultaneously will be the electronic sector index. A major contributor to the overall economy and main exporting sector, the index is additionally expected to remain slightly higher as global demand for tech based products (i.e. semiconductors and chips) is suggestively underpinned. The notion should translate into a repeat performance of the 50.1 figure seen in the month of July. Ultimately, a sustained uptick in both reports is likely to bolster further strength by theSingapore dollar through the current support against the US single currency. Rounding out the weeks schedule, will be secondary reports in regards to automotive prices and foreign reserves held. For the month of July, foreign reserves grew to $129.94 billion.
Comparatively, key reports led the currency pair higher during the week as the Singapore dollar was boosted by further suggestions of growth. Starting off the week was the economys industrial production report. On an annualized basis, the rate of productive capacity rose 19.6 percent on expectations of 14.8 percent. The figure continues off of the expansion seen in the month of June as the report rose 22.5 percent. A torrid pace of growth, the annualized lift supports a narrowing decline in the monthly to the tune of -2.2 percent. Although dipping below the 19.5 percent monthly increase the prior period, the figure was definitively improved on a consensus 7.7 percent drop. Money supply suggestions were additionally strong and underpinned inflationary suggestions in the month. M1 money supplies, which include more convertible assets like cash, rose on the month to an annualized 7 percent climb. However, although supporting the current uptrend, M2 money supply rose slightly less that the previous month, by only 10.7 percent. Still relatively high, the rate of climb was less than the 11.1 percent increase witnessed in the month prior. Given the current state of affairs in the United States and the overwhelming bearish bias against the dollar, these reports lent some optimism as it seems overall economic growth may be picking up in the Asian tiger economy. Finally, ending the rather short week, both credit card billings and bad debts showed stability as bank loans and advances only climbed incrementally. In the month of July loans and advances were slightly higher by 6.1 percent versus a 5.7 percent seen in the month of June.
USD/SGD The USD/SGD has consolidated and formed a triangle since hitting a low on 5/10 at 1.5604. It would take a break below the 8/10 low at 1.5671 to argue that the path of least resistance is again down. Immediate resistance is just above at the confluence of the 10 / 20 day SMA at 1.5749/51. A breakout is imminent as the Bollinger bands (daily) are tight and price is close to the apex of the aforementioned triangle. The alternate scenario is that USDSGD is forming a long term bottom. Long term fibo support from the 61.8% of the 1.3900-1.8556 May 1995 to December 2001 bull wave is at 1.5684. The decline from 1.8556 has stalled at this level and monthly RSI is oversold. A break above 1.6033 (June high) would turn conditions bullish.
