As George W. Bush was sworn in on Saturday, as the 43rd president of the United States, many in Iraq derived a sense of satisfaction at the irony of the event. For while former President George Herbert Walker Bush watched his eldest offspring take over from the man who had replaced him in the White House in 1992, the Arab leader who Bush senior had sought to remove from power in 1991 is still firmly ensconced in the presidential palace in Baghdad.
Just days before, Iraqi President Saddam Hussein had presided over a military parade in Baghdad, marking the 10th anniversary of the Gulf War. Saluting his troops and the crowd that had gathered for the event, Saddam held a hunting rifle with one hand and fired it into the air. In so doing he scotched rumors that he had recently suffered a stroke and was virtually incapacitated.
In a bellicose speech, Saddam described Iraq’s opponents in the Gulf War as "the enemies of God, the followers of Satan." He said that in 1991 Iraq had fought against "evil that gathered from everywhere against those who believed in God and in jihad [holy war] for the sake of God". He listed several of the countries which had comprised the 33-country coalition that assembled against Iraq, including the United States, Great Britain, Germany, Spain, the Netherlands and Australia. He did not mention any of the Arab countries involved in the coalition.
The Iraqi president’s omission of names of Arab countries was not an oversight. Ten years after the Gulf War the mood in the region has changed. For while many Arab leaders reportedly continue to harbor an intense personal distaste for Saddam, they are no longer prepared to be standard bearers in a conflict whose essential outcome was decided a decade ago, when Iraqi troops withdrew under fire from Kuwait.
Furthermore, while to the Arab leadership Saddam may have been a ‘persona non grata’ for years, to many ordinary Arabs he is somewhat of a folk hero. The fact that he had survived the Gulf War and its aftermath, his snubbing of UN weapons inspectors, his readiness to attack Israel with missiles, and his recent call to Arab countries to take up arms against the Zionist forces, all served to enhance his image as a proud, brave and defiant leader — in a region where heads of state are often regarded as irresolute, self-serving and pandering to Western interests. Ordinary Arabs are well aware of the suffering caused to the Iraqi people by the UN sanctions regime, and many are committed to alleviating it.
Thus, for political reasons but for economic reasons as well, the embargo against Iraq is disintegrating, particularly in the Middle East. In early January, Iraqi Vice President Taha Yassin Ramadan became the highest-ranking Iraqi to make an official visit to Egypt since Gulf War. And when he boarded a flight at Baghdad International Airport and flew out to Cairo — in contravention of UN sanctions — it was only the third time since the sanctions against Iraq had been imposed that an Iraqi official had taken a flight out of Baghdad on state business.
The first had been Deputy Prime Minister Tareq Aziz, who in November flew to Syria, another Arab participant in the US-led coalition force in 1991. The second trip was also made by Ramadan, who led an economic delegation to India.
The Iraqis readiness to flaunt their disdain for the UN embargo on flights to and from Baghdad came after a number of foreign carriers landed in Baghdad, including an aircraft from Russia, which had also played a part in the 1991 coalition.
In Egypt, Ramadan who was accompanied by Iraq’s ministers of trade, transport and agriculture, signed a free trade agreement between Egypt and Iraq. He also met with Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak.
The pressure to discard the sanctions regime is not only being exerted by Arab governments, but by a host of other countries. Indeed, barring the United States and Great Britain, almost all of the original coalition partners are in favor of abolishing the sanctions or, at the very least, are unlikely to put up any real opposition in the UN Security Council against moves to do so.
In the case of the non-Arab countries the lack of appetite for sanctions has little to do with any sympathy for the Saddam Hussein regime, but has a lot to do with oil-rich Iraq’s potential as a trading partner. In fact, despite their governments’ more vociferous opposition to any relaxing of the sanctions regime, US and British business interests are also putting feelers out to Baghdad, so that they will not be left out in the cold when the sanctions are set aside.
Some non-Arab countries paid a heavy price for Iraq’s pariah status. One of these was Turkey, who prior to the Gulf War ranked Iraq first in terms of foreign trade volume among its various neighbors. According to several economists, quoted by the Turkish Daily News, Turkey's losses from the embargo over the past 10 years have totaled between $80 billion and $100 billion. It should be remembered that Turkish air force bases were key elements during the Gulf War and in enforcing the northern no-fly zone in the years that followed.
For his part Turkey’s Prime Minister Bulent Ecevit has been acting to change his country’s policy towards Iraq, and recently appointed a new ambassador to Baghdad, consequently upgrading the diplomatic ties between the two countries. Turkey also has allowed medical-aid flights to Baghdad and agreed to resume rail links between Iraq and Turkey. Ankara is also considering opening a second border crossing with Iraq to facilitate trade.
While the Iraqi government is rejoicing the approaching demise of the sanctions, few in Baghdad expect the United Nations to pass a resolution to that effect in the every near future. Indeed, the entry into the White House of George W. Bush — a man who proudly trumpets his father’s legacy — makes that eventuality even less likely.
But in the meantime Saddam appears content to point out to the world that, while American presidents come and go, his position in Iraq is firm. Furthermore, while UN sanctions officially remain in place, the discipline by which they are maintained is becoming a farce. And, all the while, more and more business interests are beating a path to Baghdad’s door. — (Albawaba-MEBG)
© 2001 Mena Report (www.menareport.com)
