DailyFX Economic Release Alerts for 08-08-2006
1. Japanese Machine Orders
2. UK Visible Trade Balance
Japanese Machine Orders (JUN) (05:00 GMT; 01:00 EST)
Consensus: 0.3%
Previous: -2.1%
Outlook: All signs point to growth in Junes machine orders, as the industry rebounds from Mays slow numbers. Machine tool orders grew by 11% on the year, still a very respectable number, though lower than Mays yearlong high. Industrial production surged to its highest level in seven months as manufacturers bet that consumers worldwide would continue investing despite higher interest rates. Even more significant, though, is that Junes weak yen is likely to boost machine orders as foreign companies take advantage of the relatively cheaper prices on the global marketplace. Combining this with a dip in Mays export price index, and the beginnings of a revival in domestic capital investment, look for Japans machine orders to bounce back from last months decline.
Previous: Mays machine orders came in negative in a nearly inevitable falloff from Aprils record pace. Indeed, most manufacturing numbers saw a slowdown, with high oil prices dampening industrial production as demand for autos slowed. However, despite unrealized expectations of continued growth, economists were optimistic that machine orders would continue to grow, with plenty of appetite remaining for more capital spending in the future. This assessment seems accurate, as the Japanese industrial sector has expanded consistently, with production still up 3.9% on the year in May. Therefore, most conclude that, notwithstanding Mays tumble, Japans industrial sector is likely to see a recovery in June.
UK Visible Trade Balance (British pounds) (JUN) (08:30 GMT; 04:30 EST)
Consensus: -6.200B
Previous: -6.753B
Outlook: Europes second largest economy is expected to reduce its deficit by over 0.5 billion British pounds in June as increased levels of business investment and manufacturing help to ship more goods abroad. Another development lending itself to the contraction was softer overall raw material prices. Many commodity prices, including energy, were still moderately lower in June since the large sell off the month before, which should ease the pressure of expensive imports that are needed to generate growth. Risks to the downside are certainly present, however, after the Bank of England unexpectedly raised rates and has sent the pound skyrocketing over the past week. Also, official reserves in the central bank fell from $271 million to a negative $479 million, which may have been spent on physical items such as gold to restock reserves. The UKs trade shortfall will take on greater importance especially in the coming months as the central bank determines how trade accounts are developing and whether higher overnight cash rates would overburden domestic growth or alternatively weigh on export demand through a higher exchange rate.
Previous: The United Kingdoms trade deficit unexpectedly swelled to 6.753 billion pounds in May. The negative balance was in fact the second largest on record, behind only the reading of February. Exports fell by 0.6 percent to 21.2 billion while imports ballooned 3.9 percent to 27.9 billion pounds. Effecting the balance from the domestic side, demand for British goods overseas was curbed by a stronger pound, especially against the US dollar. At the same time, imports were surging ahead due to high energy and other raw material costs. The Central Bank was placing specific stock behind predictions that stronger exports would help fuel growth in the $2 trillion economy, so it may take further policy decision very cautiously to make sure a waver in export growth will not compound an evolution in slower domestic spending.
