Euro Holding Support
Japanese Yen Correctively Lower
British Pound Dips
Swiss Franc To Try 1.2300 Again
Canadian Dollar Continues To Look Offered
Australian Dollar Turns Down
New Zealand Dollar Correcting Losses
EUR/USD Little has changed from yesterday. EUR/USD rallied to 1.2770 on Friday to form a double top. The pair has since consolidated and scope remains for additional weakness before another leg higher. Bulls are protected by a short term trendline / 61.8% fibo of 1.2657-1.2772 at 1.2702. It would take a break below there to negate the near term bullish view. Strength past the 1.2772 high encounters potential resistance from a resisting trendline (originates at 6/5 high at 1.2976). The 7/7 high at 1.2859 is resistance on a break above the mentioned resisting trendline.
USD/JPY As mentioned yesterday, the hourly shows bullish divergence with RSI following the decline to just below the 38.2% fibo of 108.96-117.88 at 114.48. This sets the stage for a rally attempt to the 38.2% fibo of 117.38-114.23 (todays low) at 115.43 or the confluence of the 50% fibo / 7/21 low at 115.80/81. USD/JPY has come right into the zone for the terminus of a 3rd wave down from 117.38 as marked by the 138.2% and 161.8% fibo extensions of 117.88-115.81 at 114.01/50. Thus, a test of the 161.8% fibo at the 114.00 figure before a corrective bounce plays out is a possibility. The pair has traded off of its low yesterday at 114.17 to challenge 114.84 but the rally attempt is looking tired on the hourly. The rally appears to be in 3 waves as well with the first wave from 114.17 to 114.74 and the 3rd beginning at 114.46. If the 3rd wave is to equal the 1st wave, then we could see strength to 115.03.
GBP/USD Cable has choppily declined to 1.8624 before rallying back near the highs from 7/27 and 7/28 just above 1.8650. GBP/USD trades in a sort of no mans land at the moment between yesterdays high at 1.8688 and todays low at 1.8624. A break above the 1.8688 high could see an assault on the 78.6% fibo of 1.9025-1.8090 at 1.8823. Weakness below 1.8624 and yesterdays low at 1.8615 could facilitate a deeper correction to the 38.2% fibo of 1.8382-1.8688 at 1.8571.
USD/CHF We mentioned yesterday that The USD/CHF decline has stalled just above the 1.2300 figure. The pair has ranged and formed a congestion area between 1.2309 and 1.2347. This is a good point of reference from which to adopt a bias. The pair traded just above the congestion area for the briefest of moments so far today but resistance looks strong near todays high at 1.2360 as evidenced by long hourly wicks. Price is very close to support from a trendline that stems from the 1.1919 low (on daily chart below). A break below this line could open up the floodgates and see USD/CHF test the 7/7 low at 1.2190 in a short amount of time.
USD/CAD One look at the daily chart and you will notice that there is demand for USD/CAD. We have held a bullish stance, which was strengthened once the ascending triangle was broken the upside on 7/11. Ever since then, every dip into the ascending triangle has been met with immediate buying. USD/CAD gained for two consecutive months for the first time since December 2004 and January 2005 which is consistent with the view that this pair is in a period of transition. Immediate support is at the 1.1260/80 level (breakout of ascending triangle/former resistance). A dip below there exposes yesterdays spike low at 1.1218.
AUD/USD AUD/USD has broken below a short term supporting trendline (from the 7/19 low at .7403), which reinforces our bearish view that we proposed yesterday. However, RSI is near oversold territory on the hourly and the idea that the dollar will decline against the other major pairs favors a bounce in the near term. The 61.8% fibo of .7674-.7612 at .7650 would intersect with the former supporting trendline (which would now be resistance) sometime later today. A break above there targets the high from Monday at .7674. The .7591 low from 7/28 is support on a decline below the .7600 figure.
NZD/USD Kiwi is little changed from yesterday. The pair bounced off of the 38.2% fibo of .5927-.6282 at .6148 on Friday. Action continued to look bearish though as RSI on both the hourly and daily have turned down below 50 (midpoint). Price currently trades right at the 20 day SMA. A break lower sees initial support at Fridays low at .6143. Initial resistance is at todays high at .6203.
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