Turkey's Inflation to Jump to 12 Percent by Year End

Published November 2nd, 2019 - 12:00 GMT
Inflation surged to more than 25% in October 2018
Inflation surged to more than 25% in October 2018. (Shutterstock)
Highlights
In September the consumer price index (CPI) fell to single digits for the first time in more than two years.

Turkey’s annual inflation is expected to have remained in single digits for a second consecutive month in October to stand at 8.6%, partly reflecting so-called base effects given high price increases a year ago, a Reuters poll showed on Friday.

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Inflation surged to more than 25% in October 2018 in the wake of a currency crisis in which the lira plummeted against the dollar, but it has since declined due to higher interest rates and lagging economic activity.

In September the consumer price index (CPI) fell to single digits for the first time in more than two years. For October the median estimate in a Reuters poll of 20 economists was 8.6%, with forecasts ranging between 9.5% and 7.7%.

Finance Minister Berat Albayrak said on Thursday inflation may fall to around 8% in October.

For the monthly rate, estimates of 19 economists ranged between 2.9% and 1.2%, with a median of 2.02%.

For the year as a whole - in this case based on responses from 16 economists - the average estimate has fallen to 12.3% from 13.3% last month. That’s after inflation is expected to return to double-digits in the last two months of the year as base effects wear off.

The Turkish Statistical Institute is due to announce October inflation data on November 4.

Albaraka Turk economist Lutfullah Bingol said the downward trend in the annual CPI is expected to continue in October, partly due to food prices rising less quickly, though other factors meant prices rose more sharply month-on-month than in September.

“The reason we expect a relatively high monthly inflation is the relative rigidity in the services inflation and seasonality, such as the prices hikes that come in October every year,” he said, referring to price hikes often made by companies around this time of year.

However, Bingol added he had reduced his year-end estimate due to a continued general downward inflation trend stemming from lira stability and global factors arising especially from China.

The central bank on Thursday reduced its year-end estimate to 12% from 13.9% previously.


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