ALBAWABA – After months of moderating United States (US) employment growth, the return of United Auto Workers (UAW) workers to the assembly lines is seen boosting November payrolls in the upcoming US jobs report, reversing – if only partially – the cooling effects of a slowing US jobs market.
Government data next Friday are projected to show payrolls in the world’s largest economy up by 180,000, up from 150,000 in October.
Although this would raise the three-month moving average, it would still be down by about 100,000 from the pace seen earlier in 2023, according to Bloomberg.
Overall, US inflation is reportedly cooling as the US economy grew at a better-than-expected rate.
A cooler US job market reflects slowing inflation - Shutterstock
Meanwhile, Bloomberg forecasts the unemployment rate to hold at 3.9 percent, the highest since the start of 2022, which is consistent with softer labor-market conditions and more restrained wage growth.
The US jobs report is forecast to show November average hourly earnings increased 4 percent from a year ago, the smallest annual advance since mid-2021, as reported by Bloomberg.
A cooler US jobs market means slowing US inflation, which supports assessments that the Federal Reserve is done raising interest rates.
However, Fed Chair Jerome Powell pushed back on Friday against growing expectations for interest-rate cuts in the first half of 2024. Fed officials will observe a blackout period ahead of their December 12-13 policy meeting, the last for 2023.
