Euro Takes A Breather
Japanese Yen Holds Own
British Pound Digests Gains
Swiss Franc Challenges the 1.2300 Figure
Canadian Dollar Continues In Choppy Trading
Australian Dollar Falls Back To .7600 Figure
New Zealand Dollar At Fibo Support
EUR/USD It is possible that the correction from the 1.2774 high is complete at 1.2675. The 7/25 high at 1.2671 is support just below current price. A break below 1.2671 would expose the 61.8% fibo of 1.2556-1.2774 at 1.2640. The favored view is bullish unless the 1.2556 low gives way to lower prices. Initial resistance is at yesterdays 1.2774 high. A break above yesterdays high (as well as the 61.8% of 1.2976-1.2456 at 1.2776) would probe the trendline that connects the 1.3666 and 1.2976 highs at around 1.2870.
USD/JPY Price has come very close to testing the 61.8% fibo of 113.41-117.88 at 115.12 bottoming so far today at 115.22. There is massive divergence with oscillators on the hourly at a double bottom from yesterday and todays 115.28 and 115.22 lows. This sets the stage for a rally attempt to challenge the 38.2% fibo of 117.88-115.22 at 116.24. Additional support is at a trendline on the daily that stems from the 108.96 low.
GBP/USD Initial support at the 7/26 high of 1.8549 has held so far. Cable bounced off the 1.8543 to test the 1.8600 figure this morning. Hourly oscillators are sloping up again and above midpoints, showing positive short term momentum. Although yesterdays high topped out at the 61.8% fibo of 1.9025-1.8090 and yesterdays candle formed a long reverse hammer, the bullish bias remains fro the simple fact that GBP/USD continues to make higher lows (1.8090, 1.8176, 1.8383). Initial resistance is at yesterdays high of 1.8675 with a push higher exposing the 6/6 high at 1.8775 and 78.6% fibo of 1.9025-1.8090 at 1.8822.
USD/CHF USD/CHF tumbled yesterday and came close to testing the 1.2300 figure, bottoming out at 1.2306. Price has since bounced all the way to the 1.2400 figure which is also the 38.2% of 1.2546-1.2306. Any gains above the 1.2400 figure encounter additional fibo resistance at 1.2425 (50%) and 1.2453 (61.8%). A break below a trendline on the daily (from the 1.1919 low) would really turn the picture bearish.
USD/CAD Little has changed from yesterday as USD/CAD continues to consolidate in a tight range. The failure of USD/CAD to challenge the 1.1456 high from 7/24 must be disconcerting to bulls. The longer term bias is up due to the break of the ascending triangle at 1.1260/80 and the series of higher lows at 1.0927, 1.0960, 1.1035, and 1.1255. However, the rally looks tired on the daily chart. Divergence with CCI on the daily and CCI declining from well above 100 to just above 100 favors a decline in the near term. Immediate support is at the 7/24 low at 1.1366 with a break exposing the 38.2% fibo of 1.1039-1.1456 at 1.1296. Price action may seem choppy right now, but this fits with the gradual changing of a long term trend as a large distribution low is formed. A bounce in the short term looks probable with price stalling at the 61.8% fibo of 1.1261-1.1456 at 1.1336.
AUD/USD AUD/USD has come off its high yesterday above the upper Bollinger band on the daily at .7658 to challenge the .7600 figure. The nature of the decline is choppy and corrective but scope remains for a deeper retracement to the confluence of the 7/25 high / 38.2% fibo of .7403-.7658 at .7561/63. Gains past yesterdays high at .7658 target the 78.6% fibo of .7791-.7270 at .7678.
NZD/USD Kiwi is the weakest of the bunch as the pair has fallen to the 38.2% fibo of 5927-.6282 at .6147. Price is currently testing the 20 day SMA and a break lower would bolster a longer term bearish picture. Slight bullish divergence with oscillators on the hourly as well as RSI rising from below 30 favor a short term bounce with initial resistance at yesterdays low at .6173.
Glossary of Terms
CCI(20) 20 day Commodity Channel Index
andgt; 0 bullish
0 andgt; bearish
andgt; 100 extremely bullish
-100 andgt; - extremely bearish
RSI(14) 14 day Relative Strength Index
andgt; 50 bullish
50 andgt; bearish
andgt; 70 overbought
30 andgt; - oversold
MACD ? - MACD slope (MACD MACD[1])
andgt; 0 bullish
0 andgt; - bearish
Mom(8) 8 day Momentum (shorter-term direction)
andgt; 0 bullish
0 andgt; - bearish
ATR(14) 14 day Average True Range (volatility)
Medium 75th percentile* andgt; ATR(14) andgt; 25th percentile*
High - andgt; 75th percentile*
Low 25th percentile* andgt;
ADX(14) 14 day Average Directional Index (directional strength)
andgt; 30 strong
30 andgt; - weak
*measured against past 3 months
