The US dollar decline may be back underway. Ideally, the EURUSD remains above 1.5611. The NZDUSD appears to have bottomed in a B wave at .7483 and a C wave is on its way to above .7662.
We wrote last week that “the preferred count treats the advance from 1.5283 as a series of 1st and 2nd waves (1 and 2 of V). The rally from 1.5303 is wave (1) of 3. The next ‘significant’ move should be back to 1.57 (at least). As such, lighten up on longs at this point.” The correction reached 1.5612 yesterday and may be complete. The 61.8% of 1.5303-1.5909 at 1.5534 would be the next level of potential support. It is best to wait for this correction to play out before adding to / initiating long positions. The larger bullish bias is intact as long as price is above 1.5303.
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STRATEGY: Bullish, against 1.5303 (but lighten up), target is above 1.6018
There are 3 waves up from 95.72 so a top may be in place at 108.57. A cautious bearish bias is warranted against that level. Additionally, the 200 day SMA is acting as resistance and has since early June.
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A C wave (of either a triangle or flat) is underway. If a triangle, wave C likely continues until 2.02 (March 27 top). If a flat, wave C will continue through 2.04. The drop from 2.0006 is viewed as corrective. As long as price holds above 1.9583 (and ideally 1.9648), upside potential remains significant.
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STRATEGY: Bullish, against 1.9583, target 1 at 2.0175, target 2 TBD
The USDCHF is probably on its way to a new low. The advance from .9647 is in 3 waves and therefore corrective. 3 wave movements are eventually completely retraced. A bearish bias is warranted against 1.0493. We wrote last week that a push through 1.0227 is likely. Look for resistance near 1.0266.” 1.0375 is the 61.8% of 1.0540-1.0110 and could provide resistance near term.
Bottom line is that we remain bullish as long as price is above 1.0047. With price above there, we maintain that a triangle is complete. Some doubt has entered out mind regarding this count simply because the USDCAD has not yet accelerated higher in a 3rd wave.
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STRATEGY: Bullish, against .1.0047, target above 1.0324
STRATEGY: Bullish, against .9328, target above .9668 (probably near 1)
Recent commentary has mentioned that “an A-B-C correction may be complete at .7662 but our preferred count is for a rally to end closer to the 50% of .7921-.7445 at .7683 and perhaps even the 61.8%-78.6% at .7740-.7920. A rally to there would fill the 6/4 gap.” A C wave is likely underway now from .7483. A bullish bias is warranted against .7445.
STRATEGY: Bullish, against .7445, target .7720
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