EURUSD – Euro Forecast to Fall Against US Dollar
GBPUSD – British Pound Forecast to Lose Further
USDJPY – Japanese Yen Outlook Remains Bullish
USDCHF – Swiss Franc Forecast Turns Less Aggressive
USDCAD – Canadian Dollar Forecast to Gain Further
GBPJPY – Sentiment-based Bias Somewhat Unclear
While the SSI is available once a week on DailyFX.com, you can receive SSI readings twice a day in DailyFX Plus Forex Intraday Trading Signals
Recent shifts in retail FX sentiment increasingly point to a US Dollar reversal, and in fact the SSI is now giving a fairly clear signal to go short the Euro versus its US counterpart. Earlier this week, we pointed to extreme FX Futures and Options markets positioning and argued that the US Dollar set an important bottom on one-sided positioning. Though it is clearly premature to definitively say that the USD has set a base, strong shifts in crowd sentiment add further conviction to our call. In fact, long open interest in the EURUSD jumped 27% overnight while short open interest dropped 15%. This gives us fairly clear signal to go short EURUSD, and indeed one of our algorithmic SSI-based trading systems remains short from 1.4695.
Historical Charts of Speculative Forex Trading Positioning
EURUSD – The ratio of long to short positions in the EURUSD stands at -1.00 as nearly 50% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.49 as 60% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 26.1% higher than yesterday and 14.5% stronger since last week. Short positions are 15.5% lower than yesterday and 15.6% weaker since last week. Open interest is 1.2% stronger than yesterday and 0.9% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and the recent flip to neutral gives a strong signal to sell EURUSD.
GBPUSD – The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPUSD stands at 1.29 as nearly 56% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.22 as 55% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 6.6% higher than yesterday and 25.2% weaker since last week. Short positions are 1.4% higher than yesterday and 51.9% stronger since last week. Open interest is 4.3% stronger than yesterday and 3.5% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPUSD losses.
