Euro Rallies Off of 1.2700
Japanese Yen Tests 116.00
British Pound Still Consolidating
Swiss Franc Comes Off Of Fibo Resistance
Canadian Dollar Still Ranging
Australian Dollar Looks Bearish
New Zealand Dollar At Resisting Trendline
EUR/USD EURUSD turned up just above the 50% fibo of 1.2456-1.2908 at 1.2682. In fact, the low yesterday was at the monthly pivot (H+L+C / 3) at 1.2693. With the push higher, it appears that a 3 wave decline from 1.2908 is over. This sets the stage for a rally attempt to 1.2911 (8/10 high). A drop below 1.2693 suggests that a deeper correction of the 1.2456-1.2908 rally is underway. Support would be at the 50% fibo of that rally at 1.2682 and the 61.8% fibo at 1.2628.
USD/JPY USDJPY also turned after possible completing its own 3 wave correction. The larger picture suggests that the pair is entering the final wave of a 3 wave correction of the 108.96-117.88 rally. If this is the case, then the decline should be rapid and go to at least the 8/4 low at 113.95. Targets below there include the 50% fibo of 108.96-117.88 at 113.42 and the point where wave A (117.88-113.95) would equal wave C (starting at 116.74) at 112.80. Price is currently just below the 200 day SMA, which is resistance at 116.17. Additional resistance is the 61.8% fibo of 116.74-115.82 at 116.39. A break below the 8/4 high at 115.54 bolsters the bearish case.
GBP/USD The decline from 1.9144 has dipped below the 38.2% fibo of 1.8383-1.9144 at 1.8854. If the 8/14 low at 1.8840 holds as support, then we could see a resumption of the uptrend with the 8/11 high at 1.8989 as initial resistance. A push above there targets the 1.9144 high. A break below 1.8840 would expose the confluence of the 20 day SMA / 50% fibo of 1.8383-1.9144 at 1.8753/63.
USD/CHF The 61.8% fibo of 1.2595-1.2191 at 1.2440 held as resistance yesterday as USDCHF has declined about 100 pips from 1.2440. The impulsive looking decline combined with the head and shoulders pattern on the daily points to a continuation of weakness. In this event, support is at the 61.8% fibo of 1.2191-1.2445 at 1.2289. A break below there encounters possible strong support from the double bottom at 1.2191 (7/7, 8/4 lows). Tight Bollinger bands on the daily suggest that the move could be rapid. Immediate support is at todays high of 1.2380. A break above yesterdays high at 1.2444 negates the near term bearish bias.
USD/CAD We mentioned yesterday that A break above the 8/10, 8/11 highs at 1.1281 exposes the 8/4 high at 1.1345. Although the pair was rejected at the 1.1300 figure yesterday, the bullish view is favored due to the series of higher lows following 1.0927 (5/31 low). The lows connect to form a well defined supporting trendline that currently sits just below the 1.1200 figure. Prices need to hold above there in order to keep the near term bullish outlook intact. A break below there exposes the 61.8% fibo of 1.0927-1.1456 at 1.1130.
AUD/USD As we have focused on in recent commentary, the bias is a bearish one as evidenced by the bearish divergence with oscillators on the daily at recent highs and a resisting trendline from the 3/8 high at .7988. MACD is also sloping down now and RSI is nearing 50. Immediate resistance is at the high from today at .7653 as well as the 8/14 high at .7677. A steep supporting trendline is near yesterdays low at .7583. The line originates from the 6/28 low at .7270. A break below .7583 exposes the 8/9 low at .7563.
NZD/USD Kiwi has held up better than the Aussie has. The pair has rallied today and briefly traded above the 8/14 high (.6373) to .6375. Bulls have been held at bay by a resisting line from the 5/3 high at .6443. A break above would expose the 5/31 high at .6428. The hourly chart shows that RSI is declining from near overbought levels so a correction of recent strength could continue. Initial resistance is at the 38.2% fibo of .6273-.6375 at .6336. Of note is that daily CCI is now above 100. This implies that the rally is strong but also potentially nearing its terminus.
