USDJPY Sentiment Points To Further Upside, Though Momentum Fading

Published June 27th, 2008 - 01:42 GMT
Al Bawaba
Al Bawaba

USD/JPY Ratio: -1.48
Signal: Bullish



Currency Last Week Present* % Long % Change in Positions Outstanding Signal
USDJPY -1.66 -1.48 40% -4.85% Bullish


USDJPY – Two month’s of relatively consistent short-side positioning from the retail sector has served the USDJPY SSI well. However, the contrarian reading suggests the bullish run is losing its momentum. This week, the pair’s speculative positioning index stands at        -1.48 with 60% of the survey pool holding short positions. And, though this is still a relatively acute short-side reading, it maintains a steady move towards parity following the -1.66 print from last week and -1.93 of two weeks ago. Not only has the steady decline in the USDJPY index’s extreme matched the fading momentum in the underlying pair, but trading activity within the sentiment sector has similarly cooled. Traders increased their long holdings by only 2.5% over the past 24 hours, and a modest 1.3% from last week. On the other side of the market, shorts have edged off 0.2% from yesterday and slipped 2.3% from the same period a week ago. Overall, net positioning fell 5.3% form last week, but open interest is still 2.3% above the monthly average.