World demand for oil products is set to rise by three million barrels per day in the fourth quarter to 78.4 million barrels of oil per day, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in a monthly report on Tuesday.
The agency said the price of Brent North Sea quality oil had risen to 38 dollars a barrel on September 7 and then had fallen to about 30 dollars a barrel.
The decline had been caused by the use by the United States of strategic oil stocks and by a commitment by the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and by Saudi Arabia to increase production if necessary to stabilise the market, the IEA said.
The biggest forecast increase in demand, of 1.4 million barrels a day, was expected in Asia, followed by an increase of 1.0 million barrels per day in Europe and of 0.4 million barrels per day in North America.
But the agency said that the forecast figure could turn out to be 500,000 barrels a day less or more depending on the severity of the winter in the northern hemisphere.
Avergae world oil production was 77.4 million barrels per day in September which was 380,000 barrels per day more than the figure for August. Most of the increase had been provided by production by OPEC which increased by 290,000 barrels per day to 28.98 million barrels per day. Saudi Arabia had provided the increase by OPEC, the agency said.
Supply, which totalled 26.1 million barrels per day excluding production by Iraq, was close to a new target by OPEC of 26.2 million barrels per day on October 1.
OPEC had said on Setember 10 that it would provide an extra amount of 800,000 barrels per day from October 1 to contain the price of oil. Production by countries outside OPEC was likely to increase by 800,000 barrels per day in the fourth quarter, the agency said.
Refineries in countries in the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) had operated at 92 percent of their capacity in August and activity had increased by 500,000 barrels per day to 39.6 million barrels per day.
Activity had increased notably in Europe. In the United States activity had fallen by 100,000 barrels per day but remained strong at 15.7 million barrels per day. Industrial stocks held in OECD countries had fallen by 400,000 barrels per day in August owing to demand by refineries, but the arrival of extra oil on the market and a promise of a new flow of distilled procuts from Asia were encouraging signs for an improvement of stock levels, the agency said. – (AFP)
© Agence France Presse 2000
