World oil demand set to rise to 77 mbd in winter

Published November 12th, 2000 - 02:00 GMT

World demand for oil, which amounted to 75.5 million barrels per day in the third quarter, will increase by more than two million barrels per day in the fourth quarter and in the first quarter of next year, the International Energey Agency forecast on Thursday. 

 

Demand would then fall in the second quarter of 2001, it said in a monthly report. 

 

Demand for oil by countries in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) rose by 1.3 percent in October from the figure for October 1999 to 48 million barrels per day and by 0.2 percent from the figure for September this year, the IEA said. 

 

This year demand had risen by 3.4 percent in August, and it had advanced moderately in September and October. 

 

Since 1997 overall demand for oil had risen on average by two million barrels per day or overall by about 2.1 billion barrels, driven by strong growth of the North American economy and recovery of economies in Asia and in other emerging regions. 

 

The increase in demand had resulted in massive reductions of stocks, and in price volatility, the agency said. 

 

World production of oil had amounted to 78.6 million barrels per day in October, marking an increase of 460,000 barrels per day. 

 

Supplies from countries belonging to the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) increased in October by 460,000 barrels per day to 29.5 million barrels per day, owing mainly to oil from Saudi Arabia.  

OPEC production, excluding production by Iraq, had amounted to 26.5 million barrels per day. 

 

The price of crude oil had remained high and volatile in October depending upon development of the crisis in the Middle East. Because stocks were low, the oil market was particularly affected by the weather, demand for heating oil and events in Iraq, the IEA said. 

 

The first estimates indicated that industrial stocks of oil in OECD countries had fallen by 0.4 million barrels per day in September even though stocks normally increased in the third quarter. 

 

In line with seasonal trends, refining capacity in OECD countries in September fell by 2.0 percent from the figure for August to 38.9 million barrels per day. Refining capacity had been used to the extent of 90.5 percent. 

 

But capacity in the United States had fallen by only 0.6 percent in September and in October installations had continued to work at maximum rates even though maintenance was normally carried out during this period, the IEA said.—AFP. 

©--Agence France Presse 

 

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