Yen Crosses Bearish at least in the Short Term

Under the preferred count, a triangle is complete at 158.60 (view a daily to see waves A and B).  The rally that followed is in 5 waves but is small relative to the triangle, making it likely that the advance is the first wave of the terminal thrust.  A bullish bias is warranted against 158.60 but with 5 waves up from there, the EURJPY should correct lower.  Expect  decline over the next week(s).  Support begins at 165.50. 

As long as 219.30 is intact, we are treating the advance from 192.60 as a corrective 4th wave.  Within the advance, the rally from 199.79 would equal the 192.60-208.94 rally at 216.13, very close to the 7/23 high at 215.84.  On the short term charts, the drop from 215.83 does look impulsive so a cautious bearish bias is warranted against there.  The minimum objective is below 211.59.

The big picture focus remains on the A-B-C advance from the 2000 low at 58.82.  Wave C would equal wave A (arithmetically) at 112.27 but waves A and C do not have to be equal.  The advance has already satisfied minimum expectations and a long time support line has acted as resistance since December 2007.  A break above this line argues for an extension towards 112.  It is best to remain bullish against 98.27 and buy sharp pullbacks against there (unless the decline becomes impulsive). Fibo support begins at 102.50 and extends to 100.87. 

There is no change to the bearish outlook for the CADJPY.  “Price below 109.62 keeps the series of lower highs (and lower lows) intact; which is the definition of a bear market.    The 200 day SMA is at 106.78 and provided resistance on 7/23.”  Price has fallen below the line and remained there since 7/24, indicating that bears are in control. 

The AUDJPY advance from 88.14 MAY be complete as a double zigzag at 104.45.  It is also possible that this rally is the first leg of a complex correction.  Regardless, the trend should be down for the next few weeks. Fibo support does not begin until 98.22.

The NZDJPY has traded sideways since August 2007.  There is no doubt that the action since is a correction, probably a triangle.  A bearish break of the triangle is expected eventually but it does not appear that the triangle is complete.  A push through the May 2008 high could complete wave E of the triangle and give way to lower prices.  Coming under 76.71 would present a bearish break opportunity against 83.02 

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