As risk aversion has subsided, EURJPY has climbed from the 151.70/86 level following multiple tests. While daily oscillators still look bearish, they have turned higher on a shorter-term basis (60, 240-minute) and the pair could be moving up to target the 38.2% fib of 161.39 – 151.70 at 155.37.
As risk aversion has subsided, EURJPY has climbed from the 151.70/86 level following multiple tests. While daily oscillators still look bearish, they have turned higher on a shorter-term basis (60, 240-minute) and the pair could be moving up to target the 38.2% fib of 161.39 – 151.70 at 155.37. However, if we see that carry trades continue to recover (including equities), EURJPY may take on 159.00/08.
Since bottoming out at nearly three-year lows of 192.47, GBPJPY has surged and is currently testing the 200 level. Given the series of higher lows over the past week or so, the GBPJPY pair looks bullish and likely to target trendline resistance near 205.50 within the next few days, with sharper gains taking on the March highs near 208.00/50. On the other hand, GBPJPY remains in a clear downtrend, leaving a long-term bearish bias intact.
When it comes to CHFJPY, 100.48 has served as an important resistance level for more than 20 years. While we did see the pair break above in July 2007, we have not seen a sustained break since. With daily oscillators turning bearish, there is a possibility that a more substantial turn lower is taking place to target 96.50/97.00 in the near-term. However, support also looms around 95.00, where we have a trendline that extends all the way back to the November 2003 lows at 79.00. A break below this point to much sharper declines towards 93.05. On the other hand, the consolidation over the past few months could be viewed as an ascending triangle, which could have bullish implications for the pair to target (at the very least) the July 2007 highs of 101.84.
After posting substantial declines, CADJPY has bounced from the 61.8% fib of 78.42 – 125.54 at 96.49. This marks a very strong support level and the pair if the pair can manage to punch above the psychologically important 100 level, CADJPY will likely take on the confluence of the 38.2% fib of 125.54 – 95.68 and the 38.2% fib of the previously noted rally at 107.06/64.
Like many of the JPY crosses, AUDJPY has recently turned higher from significant Fibonacci support (in this case, the 38.2% fib of 55.59 – 107.85 at 88.04). Hourly and 240-minute charts look bullish, and a test of the March 10 lows/March 18 highs near 92.80/93.00 is likely. More substantial resistance looms above at the confluence of the 50 SMA and 38.2% fib of 107.85 – 88.15 at 95.45/63.
A trendline dating back to early 2006 along the supporting trendline of a falling channel has helped propel NZDJPY higher. The pair will likely target the 38.2% fib of 88.10 – 76.71 at 81.06 in the near-term, though a push towards the 61.8% fib at 83.75 seems more probable given the heavy consolidations witnessed in the past near that level. It remains to be seen whether this recent rally is strong enough to take NZDJPY up to the top of the range, but given the prevailing downtrend the chances are small.
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TREND ANALYSIS is based on a rolling pivot model. LONG TERM TREND is determined by the last 3 months of price data (high, low, close). SHORT TERM TREND is determined by the last 4 weeks of price data (high, low, close). R3, R2, R1, PL, PH, S1, S2, and S3 are provided to aid in identifying entries and exits. These are objective measures and our subjective analysis (STRATEGY) may differ.
SCHEDULE
Monday: EURJPY, GBPJPY, CHFJPY, CADJPY, AUDJPY, NZDJPY
Tuesday: EURGBP, EURCHF, EURCAD, EURAUD, EURNZD
Wednesday: GBPCHF, GBPCAD, GBPAUD, GBPNZD
Thursday: AUDCHF, AUDCAD, AUDNZD
