-EURJPY and CHFJPY reverse at 200 day SMAs
-GBPJPY reverses at 38.2% Fibonacci
-Long term CADJPY and NZDJPY views

Euro / Japanese Yen

The complex correction from 113.59 may be complete. Dropping below the channel line that contained wave Y would suggest that a top is in place. So far, the 200 day SMA has held. Risk of a sharp decline is high. A push above there would expose the 50% of the decline from 170, at 139.

British Pound / Japanese Yen

The GBPJPY advance from 118.79 is viewed as corrective. Specifically, the advance is a 4th wave and may be complete at 151.60, which is roughly the 38.2% of the decline from 215.98 at 149.27 (on a closing basis, the high is 149.21). Risk of a sharp decline is high. A rally above 151.60 would give scope to the 50% retracement at 160.18.

Swiss Franc / Japanese Yen

A picture perfect flat has been unfolding since the low at 74.66. RSI divergence along with the indicator turning down and the 200 day SMA holding as resistance suggests that a top is in place. Favor the downside against 90.

Canadian Dollar/ Japanese Yen

The short term is unclear so I am displaying the long term chart to illustrate that the CADJPY trend remains down. First, the advance from the all time low (57.88 in 1995) is in 3 waves (corrective). The suggestion is that the CADJPY should decline to an all-time low before a bottom is in place. Also, the 12 month SMA remains above price.

Australian Dollar/ Japanese Yen

Last week’s commentary: “the AUDJPY decline from its 2008 high in impulsive (5 waves) fashion. Sideways price action since the October low at 55 is choppy and corrective. One possibility is that a complex correction (like the EURJPY) is unfolding that will end above 70.58.” After a push above 70.58, the pair has rolled over just shy of the 200 day SMA. I am looking for a top (one may be in place now).

New Zealand Dollar/ Japanese Yen

In order to get a better grasp on the NZDJPY long term potential, I zoomed out to look at the weekly chart. The most important observation is that the 2000-2007 advance is in 11 waves, which is corrective (triple zigzag to be specific). This means that the decline that began in 2007 should end below 41.94. There is resistance at the current juncture from the January high at 56.39. The next level of resistance is the confluence of a weekly November high and the 200 day SMA at 61.50. Coming under 53.66 would be evidence that a top is in place.

Jamie Saettele publishes Daily Technicals every weekday morning (930 am EST), COT analysis (published Monday mornings), technical analysis of currency crosses throughout the week (EUR on Tuesday, JPY on Wednesday, GBP on Thursday, AUD on Friday), and the DFX Trend Index every day after the NY close. He is also the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.

Please send comments about this report to jsaettele@dailyfx.com