Were the Daesh attacks during Ramadan what analysts expected?

Published June 28th, 2015 - 01:42 GMT
Daesh's attack at a beach resort in Tunisia's city of Sousse killed 38 and injured dozens more. (AFP/File)
Daesh's attack at a beach resort in Tunisia's city of Sousse killed 38 and injured dozens more. (AFP/File)

Friday's attacks in Kuwait, Tunisia and France became a sore reminder of Daesh's outreach and created more reason to worry about increased violence during Ramadan. But did any of it come as a surprise for war experts?

The Institute for the Study of War — a nonprofit that offers military analysis — published a report on Daesh (ISIS) nearly two weeks before Ramadan predicting its activity. Here are some highlights:

The ISW predicted targeting Shiite communities, shown by attacks on Yemen's Houthis and the Shiite mosque in Kuwait. But the report focused more on Yemen, Saudi Arabia and holy sites in Karbala, Najaf and Samarra in Iraq. The ISW's report maintained the possibility of attacks "further abroad," though Kuwait was never mentioned.

The report predicted a "mass casualty attack" in West Africa and included Tunisia as a possibility. Gaining territory in Hasakah and Kobani has been a process to continue throughout Ramadan.

What hasn't happened yet? Nothing from Daesh will come as much of a surprise, the ISW said.

In Syria and Iraq, capitals Damascus and Baghdad remain points of interest for the group, as well as areas surrounding Palmyra. Egypt's Sinai and Libya's Sirte are also bases from which the militants can spread their attacks in the countries.


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