Afghanistan's anti-Taliban Northern Alliance has been talking up plans of advancing on Kabul, but indications are that they will not be ready to attack for weeks unless they are helped by US strikes on the frontlines.
For five years anti-Taliban forces have been dug into defensive positions some 50 kilometres (30 miles) north of the capital.
They are succesfully stemming any militia advance into the Panjshir Valley and the Hindu Kush mountains -- the last remaining stronghold of the main opposition faction.
With the Taliban now under US bombardment for their refusal to hand over alleged terrorist mastermind Osama bin Laden, the tables are finally turning. But only very slowly.
The US has so far concentrated its air strikes on Taliban targets in Kabul, Kandahar, Jalalabad, Mazar-i-Sharif and other key cities.
But it hinted on Monday it could now turn its attention to the frontlines in the Shomali plains that stretch towards Kabul from the opposition command centre of Jabal Seraj, some 80 kilometres further north.
US Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld said in Washington the Taliban positions around Kabul had been largely spared so far only because of a lack of precise targeting information.
"I suspect that in the period ahead that might not be a safe place to be," Rumsfeld told a Pentagon news conference.
At night Taliban fighters leaving Kabul to avoid US-led air strikes are also reinforcing the militia's posts.
Analysts say this leaves the US -- and not the opposition -- holding the key to the shattered capital.
"If the Americans hit the Taliban's frontlines, the Alliance could move to the gates of Kabul with relative ease, right now," a western military analyst here said.
"If not, the Alliance would have to be willing to take heavy casualties. Obviously they prefer to let cruise missiles do the work for them."
Furthermore, a much touted flood of military aid to the opposition's Jabal Seraj command centre -- even from other backers such as Russia and Iran -- has yet to be seen, partly because of the difficulties in getting supplies here.
The main supply route from Tajikstan passes through steep, icy valleys, narrow precipices and over soaring passes and it can take seven days or more to cover the 400 kilometres from the border. Major breakdowns are frequent.
"We will capture Kabul. But not yet. We don't have the right number of men or weapons at the front yet," said one opposition commader, Mohammad Hashim, who was moving down the road from the northeastern city of Faisabad to the front near here with 50 of his men.
In conversations with a number of commanders and soldiers making the journey in rusting trucks, the consensus appeared to be that military preparations for a ground offensive against the Taliban would not be completed before the end of October.
In five days along the road, AFP saw only one truck of new ammunition. The driver said his cargo of 200 cases of 122mm artillery shells were from Kyrgyzstan. Two new helicopters were also seen in the Panjshir Valley but they can only ferry limited supplies.
In order to speed up their build-up, the opposition is making ready an airstrip near Jabal Seraj capable of landing AN-32 transport planes. That airstrip is unlikely to be ready for days and is still vulnerable to Taliban rocket strikes.
Anti-Taliban forces on the frontlines near here also appear to be outnumbered and do not control several key heights. A foreign military specialist here put opposition numbers at 4,000 and Taliban troops at 6,000.
The Northern Alliance's top spokesman, Abdullah Abdullah, predicted confidently a few hours ahead of the first US air and missile attacks that an offensive on Kabul could begin within days.
But since then mixed signals have been emerging from the disparate Alliance camp, elements of which were ousted from Kabul by the Taliban in 1996.
Some are talking up plans for an attack, while others are concentrating on putting a post-Taliban political framework in place.
The latter option could also take months if the ethnic minority groups in the Alliance, including Tajiks, Uzbeks and Hazaras, are to bring on board the majority Pashtun group, which is largely behind the Taliban at the moment -- Afghanistan, (AFP)
© 2001 Al Bawaba (www.albawaba.com)
