Article looks at whether 2010 will be the year of the tiger's roar or the cat's meow

The upheaval in the financial markets at the end of 2008 led to an extremely rough first few months of 2009. However, Standard & Poor's said in an article published on 21st December that it expects that 2010 will get off to a much tamer start. According to the article, which is titled "Top 10 Expectations For Global Corporate Credit Markets In 2010," Standard & Poor's sees 2010 as a turning point, characterized by overall prudence among market participants amid a tepid recovery in mature economies and guarded optimism among emerging markets.
 
For 2010, Standard & Poor's expects incremental improvement in macroeconomic fundamentals, ongoing repair in the financial sector, and a cautious revival in the nonfinancial sector. "Nevertheless, we expect some potholes on the road to the 'new normal,'" cautioned Diane Vazza, head of Standard & Poor's Global Fixed Income Research Group. "For example, we think there will be bursts of volatility, particularly in the second half of the year as some of the emergency government support provisions approach their expiration date. In fact, we would not be surprised to see a partial retreat from 2009's strong rally in risky asset values." Given that much of the improvement stemmed from unconventional government policy measures, the private sector's effectiveness in taking over the reins from government as the primary engine of growth for the world economy remains a critical determinant of 2010's outlook.
 
Our outlook for 2010 is far from rosy, and additional risks might emerge from other key external variables, including geopolitical events and oil prices. "One of our expectations for 2010 is that the swing from negative to positive real GDP growth will likely occur simultaneously across regions, though the pace of recovery will vary greatly by country," Ms. Vazza noted. "Bolstered by fiscal stimulus and monetary accommodation, economies worldwide are broadly set to enter into a period of positive quarterly gains in GDP beginning in the third quarter of 2009." The article contains more details about expected GDP trends as well as Standard & Poor's nine other key expectations for the year.