Boris Johnson is facing a moment of truth in the coronavirus crisis today as he prepares to tweak draconian lockdown rules - amid warnings 100,000 Britons could die by the end of the year if he gets it wrong.
The PM is set to unveil very tentative first steps towards easing the curbs strangling the economy in a televised address to the nation at 7pm, after he was warned that 18,000 new infections are still being recorded every day - far above the target of 4,000 for a wide-scale loosening.
Mr Johnson will drop the blanket 'stay at home, protect the NHS, save lives' slogan, instead urging people to 'stay alert, control the virus, and save lives'. A DefCon-style five stage alert system will be introduced to describe the country's outbreak condition.
With evidence increasingly suggesting the virus spreads far less readily in the open air, the once-a-day limit on outdoor exercise will be dropped.
The focus will also shift to getting businesses up and running where possible, with detailed guidance for firms on how they should operate, and garden centres allowed to open from Wednesday where two-metre 'social distancing' rules can be put in place. Travellers and shoppers could be urged to wear face coverings, as has already happened in Scotland.
Breaches of the more nuanced rules could be enforced with harsher fines, amid complaints from police that the enforcement so far has been 'wishy washy. Plans are being drawn up to use 'peer pressure' to get people to self-isolate, as those who test positive will be told to get in touch with anyone they might have infected.
However, the updated 'stay alert' slogan has attracted a backlash for being much too soft to guard against a deadly and very contagious disease. Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon, who will attend a Cobra meeting later to sign off the changes, has already warned that ditching the clear and simple advice will be 'potentially catastrophic'.
Union chiefs have also threatened that members will be told not return to work unless it is safe to do so, while many Labour figures have criticised the government for its change of policy.
Government sources have admitted there is no margin for error and they will not be 'forgiven' if things go badly with easing the lockdown.
It has emerged the government's Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) received warnings that there could be 100,00 deaths by the end of the year if measures are relaxed too far and too fast.
A study by experts from the London School of Tropical Hygiene and College London modelled different approaches to 'evaluate which were viable and which were not' and reportedly concluded there was 'very limited room for manoeuvre'.
There were signs early last week that the government was putting together major moves towards easing the lockdown.
However, the ambitions have been scaled back, with Mr Johnson his most senior ministers - Dominic Raab, Michael Gove, Rishi Sunak and Matt Hancock - having thrashed out a limited strategy on Wednesday night, fearing that the country's infection rate is still too high.
The real figure is reported to be around 14,000 people a day, while the government's target is said to be around 4,000, according to a report in the Sunday Times.
Policies such as allowing more than one household to mix in social 'bubbles', and reopening schools for more pupils have been put on hold.
As a government source told The Sunday Times: 'The view is that the public will forgive us for mistakes made when going into the lockdown but they won't forgive us for mistakes made coming out of it.'
Evidence of 'coronaphobia' among the public will have played a role in the decisions, with a poll for the Sun on Sunday showing 90 per cent of Britons oppose lifting restrictions this week.
Even so, the tweaks being unveiled by Mr Johnson are set to provoke splits in the UK's approach.
Ms Sturgeon has signalled Scotland will take a harder line, saying the outbreak seems to be fiercer north of the border.
Mr Johnson will also announce a five-tier warning system, administered by a Joint Biosecurity Centre, to monitor the virus risk around the country and encourage public adherence to the new measures.
The alerts will range from Level One (green) to Level Five (red), with Britain currently on Level Four.
It will be administered by a Joint Biosecurity Centre, which will be responsible for detecting local spikes of Covid-19 so ministers can increase restrictions where necessary to help reduce the infection rates.
Andy Burnham, the Labour Mayor of Greater Manchester, tweeted that it 'feels to me like a mistake to me to drop the clear' stay at home message.
Dave Ward, general secretary of the Communication Workers Union, said: 'The messaging from this Government throughout this crisis has been a total joke, but their new slogan takes it to a new level. Stay alert? It's a deadly virus not a zebra crossing.'
However, there was praise for the new message from the Bruges Group think tank. It tweeted: 'The Government's new slogan is good.
'Green replaces red for a calmer feel. 'Stay Alert' replaces 'Stay Home' and underlines individual responsibility. 'Control the Virus' is a positive message.
'It's within our power to achieve.'
Mr Johnson is expected to announce tomorrow that England is on the verge of moving down to Level Three from its Level Four grading, in a sign that there is no significant increase in the Covid-19 infection rate.
A No 10 source said that Mr Johnson, who is facing growing calls from Tory MPs to steer Britain clear of a severe economic recession, is 'proceeding with maximum caution and maximum conditionality'.
The government's road map for bringing the country out of lockdown will be published in a 50-page document tomorrow. It is understood that MPs will be briefed on the so-called 'exit strategy'.
The PM is also expected to say that social distancing rules will save livelihoods as well as lives. The change in messaging reflects concerns that Britain faces an economic contraction not felt in 300 years.
His broadcast will be his second national address of the crisis, and the first since he was hospitalised. Beforehand his televised address, he will chair a Cobra meeting with leaders of the devolved administrations and London Mayor Sadiq Khan.
The change in messaging comes as the Johnson government's united front cracks under the pressures of handling the coronavirus crisis, with Health Secretary Matt Hancock now at blows with the PM, Cabinet Office Minister Michael Gove, and Chancellor Rishi Sunak.
Mr Hancock urged the PM to 'give me a break' in a bust-up raising questions over the Minister's Cabinet future.
Mr Hancock's spokesman said Ministers were 'furious' about the mistake with the goggles, which they said had been ordered by Labour in 2009.
A Health Department source dubbed them 'Gordon's goggles' and added they were bought against 2001 standards of protection which were superseded by the time they were purchased. 'Even a decade on, we are still having to clear up Labour's mess', they added.
The latest PPE fiasco will be damaging to the Health Secretary, coming days after it emerged that surgical gowns ordered from Turkey and flown into the UK amid great fanfare did not all meet British safety standards.
A source said tensions had run high in the run-up to the deadline for hitting the 100,00 tests a day target, but said 'the PM was full of praise for his performance'.
A No 10 source said: 'This is a critical moment so, having assessed the evidence carefully, the Prime Minister will ask for the public resolve as we continue to do whatever is needed to defeat this devastating virus.'
Yesterday Mr Johnson begged the British public to stay indoors during the last days of full lockdown.
Taking to Twitter, the PM told his followers: 'Thank you for all you are doing to protect our NHS and save lives. This bank holiday weekend, please stay at home, so we don't undo everything we've done so far.'
Yet people still poured into the nation's beauty spots to soak up some bank holiday sunshine - including the PM who this morning strolled through St James's Park, where he was accosted by a finger-jabbing passer-by.
It compounded existing accusations that the government has been sending mixed messages following a flurry of reports it is preparing to ditch its 'stay at home' slogan in the Sunday broadcast.
And further casting a cloud of a confusion, a second tweet from the official Downing Street account said: 'If you are leaving the house this weekend you need to keep two metres apart from others.'
Mr Johnson was pictured swigging from a reusable Costa coffee cup on his daily walk through the park.
As he marched to work, Mr Johnson was confronted by a man who appeared give him a piece of his mind, pointing a finger at the startled PM as a smiling woman looked on. It is unclear what the man said and MailOnline has contacted No 10 for comment.
Thousands of Britons joined Mr Johnson in hitting the country's green spaces, but unlike the premier some were pictured sprawled out in groups sunbathing on what is expected to be the hottest day of the year so far.
Police in Brighton stopped cars on the A23 to prevent sun-worshipping covidiots away from the seaside, with locals cheering as tourists were turned away.
And the Coastguard said that on Friday it had the highest number of call-outs since lockdown began, with 97 incidents, 54 per cent more than the average of 63 recorded for the previous month.
Although the rule-breaking signals compliance with lockdown is fraying, Mr Johnson has told Cabinet he will be proceeding with 'maximum caution' in order to avoid a second wave of deadly infections.
Transport unions have threatened to derail any move to get too many people back onto trains and buses as chiefs have said they 'will not compromise on the health, safety and livelihoods of our members'.
Teaching unions have sounded a similar warning relating to the phased return of schools.
Ministers have been urging the UK to stick with social distancing rules this weekend despite the sunny weather and to wait for the PM to set out his plan tomorrow. Mr Johnson tweeted: 'Thank you for all you are doing to protect our NHS and save lives. This bank holiday weekend, please stay at home, so we don't undo everything that's been done so far.'
The PM also acknowledged the strain the lockdown has put on people's mental health as he said it 'has been a difficult time for many'. He told anyone who is struggling that 'there is help available'.
Ministers are thought to want to start sending primary schoolchildren back to classrooms in June. However, unions have said they will not sign off on the plans until a test and tracing system is fully operational.
The return of schools and childcare services will be key to restoring much of the economy because many workers with children will be unable to go back to work until education settings are up and running.
Police today lashed out at 'wishy-washy' enforcement of social distancing rules after sun-worshipping 'covidiots' packed out parks and beaches on the hottest day of the year so far.
The Metropolitan Police Federation (MPF) complained the Government is sending out mixed messages after people basked in sunshine yesterday, when temperatures hit 26C (78.8F) on the south coast, making it hotter than Ibiza and St Tropez.
Chair Ken Marsh told BBC Radio 4 that authorities 'needed to be firmer right from the beginning'.
He said: 'It's been quite wishy-washy how we've gone about it.
'Had we been very stringent from the off - it is painful, but it's not overly painful in terms of what you're actually being asked to do - then I think we would have a better result now.'
Hundreds flocked to London Fields where Hackney police said they were powerless to stop those out enjoying the sun from drinking and eating pizza.
In scenes replicated around the country, the Coastguard said that on Friday it had the highest number of call-outs since lockdown began, with 97 incidents, 54 per cent more than the average of 63 for the month.
Traffic police in Brighton were stopping cars at the end of the A23 which leads to the south coast seaside mecca and officers have fined visitors trying to visit for the bank holiday.
Hackney Police tweeted a picture of London Fields adding: 'Sadly we're fighting a losing battle in the parks today. Literally hundreds of people sitting having pizza, beers, wines.
'As always a big thank you to those that are observing the guidelines.'
Health officials have said they fear Britons are starting to get complacent about the Covid-19 lockdown after traffic and mobile phone data revealed more people are on the roads and looking for directions.
Professor Stephen Powis, national medical director of NHS England, said on Saturday that 'there was a little bit of concern' after the unseasonably warm weather drew big crowds to public spaces.
This article has been adapted from its original source.
