A new poll shows former President Donald Trump leading President Joe Biden in a hypothetical 2024 matchup, with independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. taking a sizable chunk of the vote.
The Harvard CAPS-Harris Poll, conducted Jan. 17-18 among 2,346 registered voters, found that Trump would beat Biden by 7 points, 48 to 41 percent, in a one-on-one race. But when Kennedy, a former Democratic candidate and environmental lawyer, was added to the ballot, Trump’s lead increased to 8 points, 41 to 33 percent, with Kennedy getting 18 percent of the vote.
Kennedy, who launched his insurgent bid last month, also drew more support from independents and young voters than either Trump or Biden, according to the poll. He received 36 percent of the independent vote, compared to 31 percent for Trump and 30 percent for Biden. Among voters aged 18-34, he garnered 38 percent, while Biden got 32 percent and Trump got 27 percent.
Kennedy has said he is running to “spoil” the 2024 election and challenge the two-party system, which he has criticized as unfair and corrupt. He has also expressed controversial views on vaccine safety and efficacy, which have alienated many Democrats.
The poll suggests that Kennedy’s candidacy could pose a serious threat to Biden’s reelection chances, as well as Trump’s hopes of reclaiming the White House. Nearly two-thirds of voters in the poll said the country “needs another choice” in 2024 if Biden and Trump are the nominees, and more than half said they would consider an “independent moderate candidate” in that scenario.
The poll also revealed some concerns about Biden’s age and performance as president, with 51 percent saying he is “getting worse” as commander-in-chief. Biden’s campaign has dismissed those worries, and has portrayed Trump as a danger to democracy.
The poll has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 2.4 percentage points. It is a collaboration of the Center for American Political Studies at Harvard University and the Harris Poll.
