Republican frontrunner Donald Trump earned his widely-expected victory Monday in the Iowa caucuses, the first vote in the 2024 presidential race, US media projections showed.
Trump is leading the polls for the 2024 Republican nomination, but he faces some challenges and risks in Iowa, the first state to hold a caucus. Here are some factors that could affect his performance in Iowa:
Donald Trump is the clear frontrunner in the Iowa caucuses, the first contest of the 2024 Republican presidential primary. According to the latest polls, he has the support of nearly half of the likely GOP caucus-goers, far ahead of his closest rivals, Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis. However, winning the caucuses does not guarantee winning the state in the general election, and Trump could face some challenges in Iowa if he becomes the nominee.
One of the challenges is the changing demographics of Iowa, which has become more diverse and urbanized in recent years. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, the state’s population grew by 4.7% between 2010 and 2020, with most of the growth coming from non-white and Hispanic residents. The share of white residents declined from 91.3% to 86.2% in the same period. These groups tend to lean more Democratic and could erode Trump’s base of support in rural areas.
Another challenge is the potential backlash from some of the state’s key industries, such as agriculture and renewable energy, which have been hurt by Trump’s policies and rhetoric. Trump’s trade wars with China and other countries have reduced the demand and prices for Iowa’s soybeans, corn, pork, and ethanol. Trump’s withdrawal from the Paris climate agreement and his rollback of environmental regulations have also undermined the state’s leadership in wind and solar power. These issues could sway some of the independent and moderate voters who are crucial for winning Iowa.
A third challenge is the possibility of a strong Democratic challenger who can appeal to a broad coalition of voters in Iowa. In 2020, Joe Biden narrowly defeated Trump in Iowa by less than 1%, becoming the first Democrat to win the state since Barack Obama in 2008. Biden’s victory was driven by his strength in the suburbs, where he improved on Hillary Clinton’s performance by 9 points, and his ability to limit Trump’s margins in rural areas. Biden also benefited from his moderate image and his message of unity and healing. If the Democrats nominate a similar candidate in 2024, they could repeat Biden’s success and deny Trump a second term.
