By Munir K. Nasser
Chief Correspondent, Washington, DC
Albawaba.com
US political experts say the first strong indicators of who will win the White House will come when Florida’s polls close at 7 p.m. US Eastern Standard Time.
They predict that if the Democratic nominee Al Gore wins Florida, it is going to make it much harder for Republican challenger George W. Bush to get a majority of Electoral College votes. If Bush wins, then attention will shift to Michigan and Pennsylvania, where polls close at 8 p.m. ET. At 11 p.m. ET, polls close in California, where Gore’s lead was cut significantly in the weeks leading up to Election Day. If Gore doesn’t win California, he can’t be president of the United States.
The latest, and last, MSNBC/Reuters/Zogby daily tracking poll, released Tuesday morning, showed the vice president ahead of his Republican opponent by 48 percent to 46 percent. He had trailed Bush by similar margins for more than 10 days before nudging ahead Monday. But the difference remains within the poll’s 3-point margin of sampling error and is a statistical tie.
According to expert analysis, if Bush loses Florida, Michigan and Pennsylvania, he would need 10 of the remaining 12 swing states to claim the presidency. When the polls close in Florida at 7 p.m. ET, if one candidate or the other wins, it will be a very significant signpost of where the evening is headed.
If Gore wins in Bush’s state, George W. Bush will need to win Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. If Bush wins in Florida, it is even more difficult for Gore to recover because if he can’t sell his Social Security plan there, it won’t help him much up north.
Experts warn, however, that anything should be expected by Wednesday morning. As this suspense play begins in Florida tonight, it may not end until we reach the Pacific Northwest.
State polls tracked major networks still show an unpredictable mosaic in what’s likely to be the closest presidential race since Democrat John F. Kennedy narrowly beat Republican Richard Nixon in 1960. Each state is crucial because the winner is not the man who receives the most popular votes but the candidate who can capture 270 of the 538 votes in the Electoral College, which are acquired on a state-by-state basis.
Opinion polls have had Bush ahead in more states but Gore has been ahead in states with more Electoral College votes, raising the possibility that Bush could win the popular vote but lose the presidency.
The puzzle is complicated by the fact that an unusually large number of states were in the tossup camp: Florida, New Hampshire, West Virginia, Ohio, Michigan, Missouri, Pennsylvania, Oregon, Washington, Wisconsin and New Mexico among them. Even Gore’s state of Tennessee and President Clinton’s state of Arkansas were close calls.
In California, the state election commission on Tuesday forecast 76 percent turnout, the highest in 20 years. And in Seattle, Washington, the projection was 84 percent turnout. This is so much busier than ever seen in previous elections.
In Wisconsin, an election official said every polling place in the capital Madison had lines. In Missouri, long lines bolstered predictions of a record 67 percent turnout. In Alabama, early turnout was described as heavy despite rain that fell all night and through the morning.
Projection Map up to 9:10 GMT
· Total votes: 538
· Vote needed to win: 270
· Bush: 205
· Gore: 181
· Toss-up: 152
© 2000 Al Bawaba (www.albawaba.com)
