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How British Researchers are Using the Web to Track COVID-19 in Syria

Published March 30th, 2020 - 09:42 GMT
Syrian city of Aleppo / AFP
Syrian city of Aleppo / AFP

The pressures on public health services the world-over are immense. There are a limited number of healthcare workers, a limited number of ventilators and ICU beds, but an ever-increasing number of patients in need of critical care.

 

Websites and apps have been developed across the world to fight the virus and identify the most at-risk. In Northwest Syria, one of the most ill-prepared areas on earth, an Arabic website has been launched which hopes to stem the spread of the virus and give relief to an already damaged healthcare system. Syria’s medical response capabilities have been all-but destroyed in the last nine years of war.

Targeted attacks on hospitals and at least 6 million peoples internally displaced (on top of 5 million who have left the country) mean that the ability to stem the spread of COVID-19 and treat patients is extremely limited.

Targeted attacks on hospitals and at least 6 million peoples internally displaced (on top of 5 million who have left the country) mean that the ability to stem the spread of COVID-19 and treat patients is extremely limited. To date, there are five confirmed cases of the coronavirus in Syria. All of these are in the government-controlled areas, whilst the Kurdish-controlled north-east and the opposition-held Northwest have none confirmed.

Five confirmed cases is almost certainly too low a figure. The World Health Organisation (WHO) has struggled to provide an adequate number of testing kits and, until recently, those that had been provided were only delivered to the government-controlled areas.

Anecdotally, health workers on the ground in Syria have reported sharp rises in patients dying from pneumonia and pulmonary infections, two causes linked with the coronavirus. A memo by the London School of Economics (LSE) states that the maximum number of COVID-19 patients who can be properly treated in Syria is 6,500. However, this is not spread evenly throughout the country.

A memo by the London School of Economics (LSE) states that the maximum number of COVID-19 patients who can be properly treated in Syria is 6,500

Whilst Damascus and Lattakia have a capacity for 3,460, Idlib in the opposition-held Northwest has a capacity for treating only 400. The website developed by VIOLET and MedGlobal will direct users who have completed a questionnaire to the best course of action for them to take.

Dr Abdulkarim Ekzayez, a Research Associate at King’s College London who worked on the development of the website, told Al Bawaba that it aims to profile its user by asking questions in four different categories. Firstly, it looks at travel history. Because there are no confirmed cases in the Northwest region of Syria, it is important to know if the user has traveled to a place with confirmed cases of the virus.

This not only allows the user to understand if they are likely to have contracted the virus but also means that analysis of the data can suggest where movements of people might mean a spread into different regions. “Travel history is important,” Dr Ekzayez says, “because epidemiologically you cannot rely only on clinical symptoms to suspect cases.”

“Travel history is important,” Dr Ekzayez says, “because epidemiologically you cannot rely only on clinical symptoms to suspect cases.”

Someone may not be displaying symptoms but could still have contracted the virus. Questions are then asked about symptoms, the health history of the user, and age. The final question is to do with any major complications which would require the user to seek emergency treatment.

“The algorithm would calculate the classification of the user. We have four or five different classifications,” explains Dr Abdulkarim Ekzayez. These classifications advise whether to look out for other symptoms or to seek medical help. All users are advised to stay at home in order to help slow the spread of the virus. The problem is that many in Syria now live in cramped living conditions with poor access to clean water and hygiene products.

In Idlib province alone, 900,000 people are living in makeshift accommodation. Furthermore, by asking people to stay indoors you are also asking them to forfeit a wage which is often acquired precariously at the best of times

​​​​​In Idlib province alone, 900,000 people are living in makeshift accommodation. Furthermore, by asking people to stay indoors you are also asking them to forfeit a wage which is often acquired precariously at the best of times, many people now relying on temporary and casual work. Almost 83% of the Syrian population are living below the poverty line. The ability for users of the website to self-isolate then is going to cause problems in response to COVID-19 but any form of distancing is going to save lives.

Many writers in Europe and the US have claimed that Syria’s greatest revenge will come in a second wave of COVID-19, carried out of Syria and back into Europe.

Syrians now face an even more uncertain future. Many writers in Europe and the US have claimed that Syria’s greatest revenge will come in a second wave of COVID-19, carried out of Syria and back into Europe. But we shouldn’t weaponize the virus more than it has been already by our politicians. The most humane response may also be the most effective.

The views expressed in this article do not necessarily reflect those of Al Bawaba News.

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