By Munir K. Nasser
Washington, DC
A prominent Palestinian political analyst and public opinion pollster said that a Palestinian concession to Israel on the sovereignty over The Haram Al-Sharif “would be tantamount to suicide.”
He said 95-100 percent of Palestinian public would reject any agreement in which Palestinians concede sovereignty over the Haram to Israel.
Khalil Shikaki, Director of the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research in Nablus, Palestine, told Albawaba.com that the Israelis never raised the issue of sovereignty over The Haram and conceded Palestinian sovereignty over it in the Abu Mazin-Beillin discussions in 1995.
Shikaki has conducted 75 public opinion polls in Palestine since 1993 about Palestinian politics and the peace process.
He said in an interview with Albawaba.com in Washington that it is very difficult for Palestinians to accept positions of compromise, but if they get a package deal that includes many compromises, the majority will reject individual aspects of the concessions but they will accept the overall package.
The following are excerpts from the interview:
Q- In case Arafat reached an agreement with Israel, what would be the reaction of the Palestinian opposition groups, like Hamas? Are they likely to use violence?
A- I don’t think Hamas will use violence. But they will oppose politically and will try to mobilize support for their position. But if Arafat is able to convince Fateh to support an agreement, particularly the Fateh Central Committee, the majority of the Palestinian people will support it even in a referendum. Hamas and the other Islamic and non-Islamic opposition groups will not be able to win public support against the agreement.
Q- Is there any possibility of holding a Palestinian referendum on an agreement with Israel?
A- The idea has been discussed, but a referendum is a political tool to try and show opposition forces within the Palestinian society or states in the region that, yes, the Palestinians do support the agreement, more than to actually to try to find out whether there is a support for it. It could be a political tool in Arafat’s hand to prove that indeed this agreement has the support of the large majority of the Palestinians.
Q- But can Arafat control the results of a referendum?
A- If he is able to convince Fateh to support it, and if the agreement passed through the Fateh Central Committee, then Arafat will have no problem selling it to the Palestinian public and he can win in a referendum. If Fateh is divided on the issue, then there is no way that Arafat can sell it to the public. Fateh still reflects the thinking of the main stream. Therefore, it all depends on how Fateh perceives the agreement.
Q- Are Palestinians in general optimistic about reaching a peace agreement this year?
A- The majority thinks that more time is still needed before an agreement is reached. In the long run, most Palestinians think there will be an agreement, but in the short run they think an agreement is feasible. Their position on the agreement will depend largely on the substance of the deal, particularly on the meaning of sovereignty, and whether a Palestinian state will be a sovereign state and other signs of traditional legitimacy, such as control of Al-Quds, including the Haram Al-Sharif. These are going to be the key issues.
Q- Why has the issue of sovereignty over the Haram Al-Sharif become a stumbling block between Israelis and Palestinians?
A- The Palestinians have doubted the positions taken by Barak at Camp David regarding sovereignty over Al-Haram. In fact, during my long years of back channel discussions with Israelis and Palestinians and others, I never had been in a situation where I heard any Israeli official or non-official demand that Israel should have sovereignty over The Haram area. Never. In the Abu Mazin-Beillin discussions in 1994-95, they never raised the issue of sovereignty over the Haram. The only issue on which there was agreement on sovereignty, was over the Haram. The Israelis conceded Palestinian sovereignty over The Haram in the Abu Mazin-Beillin discussions.
Q- Is Palestinian public opinion supportive of Arafat’s negotiating position over Jerusalem?
A- Any time the leaders take a position on any issue they possibly affect public attitudes. On the Palestinian side, we have 40 percent of the public that can go one-way or the other. There are about 25 percent of the public who are solidly opposed to any agreement. A Palestinian concession to Israel on the sovereignty over the Haram Al-Sharif will be tantamount to suicide. Public opinion will reject any agreement by 95 to 100 percent in which Palestinians concede sovereignty over The Haram to Israel.
Q- Is Palestinian public opinion ready to accept compromise on the core issues like Jerusalem and the refugees?
A- That depends on what kind of package they get. It is very difficult for people to accept positions of compromise, but if you give them a package deal that includes many compromises, you will find a very unique situation in which the majority will reject each aspect of the package but they will accept the overall package. That indicates the public is anxious for normalization.
Q- What about the Arab and Muslim public opinion? Do they affect Palestinian public opinion?
A- To a large extent, Palestinian public opinion is not influenced by what happens in the Arab world. In fact it is amazing the extent to which Palestinians do not pay attention to what happens in the Arab world and they do not think the Arab world is paying much attention to what happens among Palestinians. The Arab public opinion tends to support any position taken by the Palestinians as long as Arab and Muslim sovereignty is maintained over Al-Haram.
Q- Where do you see the negotiations going, and do you expect an agreement by the end of the year?
A- If Palestinian sovereignty over The Haram is granted, it will embolden Arafat to take risks elsewhere. In my view, if Arafat gets sovereignty over Al-Haram, as well as the Palestinian neighborhoods of all east Jerusalem, I see no impediment to reaching a full agreement and the Palestinians will declare a state before the end of the year.
At Camp David, the Palestinians have conceded on all the issues. Arafat has already conceded on territorial exchange, security arrangements, and on refugees. A lot of the issues remain in draft, still needing fine-tuning. Nothing that has happened since then will restore Arafat’s confidence in Barak. I must say that I am a lot more optimistic today than I was before the Camp David summit. To tell you the truth I did not expect Arafat to concede a settlement like Ariel 15 kilometers inside the West Bank. Arafat agreed that Ariel would become part of Israel. This means that he went to Camp David to do business. I don’t buy any argument that he was influenced by deadlines of American elections and Barak’s problems at home
Q- There were press reports this week about a split between the old guard of the Palestinian leadership like Abu Ala’ and Abu Mazin on one side and the younger negotiators like Asfour and Dahlan on the other, who urge Arafat to be more flexible on the core issues? Is there any truth to these reports?
A- I don’t think there is a split. Both the younger and older generation work for one man, and that man is Arafat. They will do whatever he tells them. They may have their own personal agenda, and the disagreement is more reflective of that personal needs and agenda – Albawaba.com
© 2000 Al Bawaba (www.albawaba.com)
