Russia's top security envoy holds talks in Uzbekistan Wednesday that could play a key role in how Washington pursues any military campaign against neighboring Afghanistan to retaliate for last week's terrorist strikes.
Russian President Vladimir Putin dispatched Security Council chief Vladimir Rushailo to the region on Monday, after this former Soviet Central Asian republic indicated its readiness to let the United States use its territory to launch a strike against prime terrorist suspect Osama bin Laden.
Uzbekistan and its two former Soviet Central Asian neighbors, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan, as well as Pakistan and Iran, are emerging as potential frontline states in any US attempt to retaliate against bin Laden and his host, the Taliban-ruled Afghanistan.
Pakistan's President Pervez Musharraf has, under US pressure, promised to cooperate with any US action, despite warnings from Pakistani radicals who said helping Washington could spell civil war.
Iran in the best of times has tense relations with Washington, but it too appears on edge about the Taliban's presence on its eastern border.
A Canadian report this week said that Teheran has asked Ottawa to pass a message to Washington that included a pledge that Iran would not oppose targeted military strikes.
Yet Moscow remains deeply suspicious of allowing any US military presence in former Soviet republics. Some generals have voiced concern that Washington -- in a bid to exert its influence in the energy-rich region -- might want to keep a presence in the region after any strike on Afghanistan.
Of the former Soviet Central Asian states, Uzbekistan, which shares a 170-kilometer border with Afghanistan, is the only one that has indicated that it may open up its territory for use by the United States, if requested.
With the largest military presence in Central Asia, and concerns about the spread of Islamic fundamentalism, analysts suggest Uzbekistan may be powerful enough to repel Moscow pressure and side with the United States in this case.
US Secretary of State Colin Powell has also noted that Uzbekistan had been "rather forthcoming."
Experts believe that the United States may consider using special forces to smoke out bin Laden, which would require positioning troops at remote bases in Uzbekistan, Pakistan and even rebel-controlled areas of Afghanistan.
Uzbekistan could thus act as a key supply and monitoring base for the US, analysts say.
"Uzbekistan would be the most likely Central Asian state to be used as a staging base, as it is questionable whether Russia would allow Tajikistan to be used," said Ustina Markus, senior analyst with the International Crisis Group in Osh.
Russia has some 10,000 troops patrolling the Tajik border with Afghanistan and has been very cautious about allowing NATO troops to be stationed in former Soviet republics, which it considers its backyard.
Tajikistan also has expressed concern about an all-out war in Afghanistan, the already-impoverished nation fearing a flood of Afghan refugees.
Turkmenistan, another former Soviet state sharing a frontier with Afghanistan, has a declared neutral policy towards the war-torn state and hopes eventually to export its oil and gas there.
But analysts believe that Rushailo was dispatched to the region with Uzbekistan's go-it-alone stance firmly in mind.
"Uzbekistan is still very dependent on Russia for many things including its weapons, and I am sure Russia might be trying to exert its influence on it," said Markus.
Uzbekistan may hope for increased military aid from Washington in return for any support as well as a toning down of criticism of its poor human rights record.
The decision lies in the end with Uzbekistan, Markus said.
"I don't think if Russia objected and Uzbekistan said fine [to the use by Washington of Uzbek territory] that the US would take Russia's objections into account over US interests," she said -- TASHKENT (AFP)
© 2001 Al Bawaba (www.albawaba.com)
