Albawaba.Com
Ankara
With disputes among Turkey's three coalition parties growing each day, the government risks breaking up when the Parliament reconvenes after its summer recess.
The pace at which Turkish Prime Minister Bulent Ecevit's coalition - comprised of the Democratic Left Party (DSP), the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) and the Motherland Party (ANAP) - had been working in its first year in office is falling off rapidly.
As the points of disagreement between the coalition partners increase with each passing day, so too does the risk of the coalition breaking up when parliament reopens after the summer recess. Should the coalition not be able to overcome the nine key sticking points, then one can expect to see attempts to find a new government model becoming headline news at the end of the year.
The three-party coalition is preparing to pay the price of constantly putting off critical issues during 16 months of working together. The regular coalition leaders' summits, chaired by Ecevit, have so far been able to find only temporary solutions to keep the coalition alive.
However, as the accumulating crisis points are now reaching the stage where they can be put off no longer, the coalition partners have begun to be seen more and more often attempting to put the blame on one another.
The first crisis occurred last year when the government tried to pass a general amnesty bill. Difficulties were overcome at the last minute, and the bill was pushed through parliament. However, when Suleyman Demirel, who was president then, vetoed the bill and sent it back to Parliament for review, the coalition was unable to agree on an amendment and this is the situation of the bill now.
The MHP insisted that the amnesty cover "ultra nationalist" murderers but the public and the DSP as senior coalition partner reacted strongly against this. Rahsan Ecevit, the DSP deputy leader and wife of the prime minister, announced she would not be able to stomach the release of former "ultra nationalists" who had taken part in mass killings.
The failure of the amnesty bill greatly disturbed inmates in Turkey's prisons, which already exceed their 72,000-inmate capacity. There is concern that tension in the prisons will escalate seriously if the amnesty bill is not passed very soon. Some 500 new inmates are sent to prison every month. If the bill is passed, it is expected to immediately ease the tension and cramped conditions within the prisons.
Just as with the amnesty bill, the coalition partners cannot come to any agreement over amendments to Article 312 of the Turkish Penal Code (TCK), which concerns freedom of expression. The MHP opposes any amendments because it believes this article is one of the best defenses against reactionaries and separatism.
As the Constitution specifically forbids any amnesty for people who commit crimes against the state, there can be no question of an amnesty bill covering them directly. Previous governments found a way of skirting this restriction by postponing execution of sentence for three years, and stating that if within that period, the culprit committed no other crime against the state, then the original crime would be deemed not to have been committed in the first place. As the coalition partners still do not see eye-to-eye on Penal Code Article 312, it will not be easy to get it amended in the new legislative year.
The one-year prison sentence handed out to the former leader of the defunct Welfare Party (RP) Necmettin Erbakan and the recent controversy over delaying the execution of the prison sentence have put the issue of Article 312 firmly back in the public eye.
Another problem facing the coalition made headlines with a verdict by the Constitutional Court. The government had managed last year to issue a reprieve for those who committed crimes involving the media.
However, the Islamist Virtue Party (FP) decided that limiting the reprieve only to those who had committed "thought crimes" using the media was contrary to the principle of equality in the Constitution and applied to the Constitutional Court to have the law annulled. The court found the FP's case to be justified and annulled the law on the condition that it be enhanced and made to fall in line with the principle of equality. As the court gave parliament one year in which to legislate a replacement law, the current one will remain in effect for another 12 months. If the government fails to legislate a new law within this time, many convicts both in Erbakan's position, and those facing prison sentences of up to 12 years, will benefit from the annulment, in one year's time when it comes into effect.
However, Erbakan's prison sentence was only delayed by four months and 26 days, so he will have to go to prison on January 13, 2001. If the government cannot issue a new law by then, Erbakan will have no choice but to serve time albeit benefiting from a "reduced sentence."
He will be out before the annulment comes into effect. It seems a difficult prospect for the coalition to come to an agreement over this as well. The MHP is totally against any form of pardon or postponement of sentence for crimes against the state. For this reason, the coalition looks set to remain at odds over this issue.
Yet another point of departure between the coalition partners that seems unlikely to be resolved in the short term is the matter of some 107 legal arrangements to be passed to speed up the European Union integration and accession process.
Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for EU Affairs Mesut Yilmaz wants these laws passed and has said that "certain circles" are against EU membership fearing that "it will lead to the breakup of the country." Yilmaz apparently was referring to both the military and the MHP when he said "certain circles," although he did not mention any names.
Both the MHP and some elements within the DSP are opposed to EU membership and as the issue requires a solution to be found rapidly, they are putting the future of the coalition in jeopardy. If the ANAP leader is uncompromising in his meetings with them, he could face an equally unmoving position on the part of his coalition counterparts. In this situation, ANAP will have to decide whether or not to put EU membership on hold and thus prolong the life of the coalition or to proceed and risk the coalition breaking up.
Another important sticking point within the coalition, and one for which the resolution period is growing smaller all the time, is the death penalty.
Although all three coalition partners agree in principle to abolishing the death penalty, the MHP wants to see Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) separatist terrorist leader Abdullah Ocalan hanged first.
Even though the death sentence for Ocalan has been confirmed, the government, by way of an interim solution, is waiting for the case to be concluded at the European Court of Human Rights. It has also decided to keep his file on hold at the prime ministry rather than send it to parliament. Intending not to become the only EU country that applies the death penalty, Turkey has been unable to achieve this aim because of the Ocalan situation. It is being said that the MHP’s view is that there can never be any question of the death penalty being scrapped as long as Ocalan remains alive and that if the coalition insists on doing this, then it will consider leaving the government in order not to offend the "ultra nationalist" voting base.
Another problem that has been creating discord within the coalition for a long time now is the matter of energy investment. The Energy Ministry, which is in ANAP's hands, is insisting that 146 separate energy investment plans be approved, but the other coalition partners consider the majority of these plans to be an unnecessary expense. The State Planning Organization (DPT) Under-secretariat is in the hands of the MHP and it says that should all the Energy Ministry's planned projects be put into effect, Turkey will be forced to spend an extra $7 billion on energy every year and that it will not give the approval necessary to carry them out. When the Treasury Under-secretariat, in DSP hands, said they would underwrite foreign credit that would be brought in for these investment plans, they effectively sank ANAP's prize boat. In order to find a solution to this problem,
Prime Minister Ecevit allowed all energy projects that would be complete by 2002 to be financed and kept all future energy investment projects out of the equation. However, ANAP has stated it feels very put out at seeing its field of authority being restricted.
ANAP blames the MHP for obstructing the Energy Ministry's investment plans and has started a program to get under the MHP's feet and generally obstruct them at every turn. They managed to get Turkish Airlines (THY) ticket prices increased despite THY falling under the jurisdiction of MHP Minister for Transport and Communications Enis Oksuz. THY also falls within the authority of ANAP State Minister for Privatization Yuksel Yalova, who believes he has sole jurisdiction over THY. Oksuz reacted sharply to Yalova's orders regarding ticket prices, and both ministers began openly accusing each other of usurping the other's authority. The issue still has not been resolved and threatens to flare up again in the period ahead.
Another crisis will be seen when the coalition partners attempt to determine the size of the 2001 budget. In accordance with an agreement worked out with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the government is obliged to adopt a budget that restricts public sector spending. However, the IMF wants minimal wage increases for civil servants and cuts in defense spending. Prime Minister Ecevit reacted sharply to this proposal, which could create a serious rift between the government and the military, and said, "Turkey decides on its internal affairs."
Already operating on a tight budget, the coalition partners will either persuade each other to allocate more to the ministries or will argue among themselves to ensure that their own ministries get the lion's share. Just as it affects the fight against inflation, the size of the budget will directly affect the government's relations with the banks as regards determining domestic debt. Even though a head-to-head between the government and those who supply capital is an option, a similar conflict with the military seems highly unlikely. As always, the government will probably remain unmoved by masses of workers taking to the streets in protest.
One more crisis point lying in ambush for the coalition is that of laws to combat reactionary or Islamic activism. The coalition partners do not see eye-to-eye on this point either. Yet the first hour of every National Security Council (MGK) meeting is taken up by the military voicing its warnings about threats to the state. The government had opted for a quick-fix solution to the problem by issuing a decree with the force of law, thus bypassing Parliament. However, President Ahmet Necdet Sezer, himself a former chief justice of the Constitutional Court, vetoed the decree twice, saying it was unconstitutional. After a two-week crisis between the government and the president, the option of issuing a decree was finally blocked and the government was left with no choice but to get an appropriate law passed. However, neither MHP nor ANAP deputies have warmed to this bill.
Even if it gets past the government, it looks highly unlikely that any law that facilitates the dismissal of civil servants will be passed by Parliament. There are tough days waiting for the government when Parliament reopens. As the points of dispute between the coalition partners continue to increase in number, so does the likelihood of the coalition breaking up.
© 2000 Al Bawaba (www.albawaba.com)
