The Iraqi government will become more precarious over the next six to 12 months and its security forces have not improved enough to operate without outside help, U.S. spy agencies conclude in a new assessment.
Despite some uneven improvements, the American analysts concluded that the level of overall violence is high, Iraq's sectarian groups remain unreconciled, and al-Qaeda in Iraq is still able to conduct highly visible attacks.
"Iraqi political leaders remain unable to govern effectively," the 10-page document, a declassified summary of a more detailed National Intelligence Estimate, concludes.
The report represents the collaborative judgments of all 16 U.S. intelligence agencies, including the CIA, Defense Intelligence Agency and the intelligence organization of each military service.
According to the AP, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid said the report confirms what most Americans already know: "Our troops are mired in an Iraqi civil war and the president's escalation strategy has failed to produce the political results he promised to our troops and the American people."
The estimate says that Iraqi Security Forces, working alongside the United States, have performed "adequately." However, it claims they haven't shown enough improvement to conduct operations without U.S. and coalition forces and are still reliant on others for key support.
The report predicts that the Iraqi government "will become more precarious over the next six to 12 months" because of criticism from members of Iraqi Shiite parties, Iraq's top Shiite religious figure Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, and Sunni and Kurdish factions.
The assessment also voices deep doubts that the government of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki can overcome sectarian divisions and meet benchmarks intended to promote political unity. It finds that Shiite factions have looked at ways to constrain him.
"The strains of the security situation and absence of key leaders have stalled internal political debates, slowed national decision-making, and increased Maliki's vulnerability to alternative coalitions," the document says.
