Each of these energy sources has strengths and weaknesses regarding costs, safety, public acceptability, greenhouse gas emissions and other important criteria.
With standard forecasts to 2040 suggesting the stagnation or decline of coal and only slow expansion of nuclear, gas appears well-placed to come out ahead, the report said.
However the picture varies significantly by geography. Besides, technological advances could bring coal and/or nuclear forward, the report added.
The typical predictions for the global power sector see gas growing strongly, nuclear slowly and coal flat-lining or shrinking.
Scenarios of strong climate action do not help nuclear much, are negative for coal and somewhat negative for gas. A strong nuclear revival is likely to be dependent on the deployment of new reactor designs, continuing major coal growth would require large-scale, low cost carbon capture and storage (CCS). Neither of these possibilities can be ruled out, but they do not appear very likely, the report said.
So, what are the implications for leading gas exporters such as Qatar?
Gas has the opportunity to gain significant market share from ageing coal and nuclear plants if relatively inexpensive.
Conversely, if gas is priced expensively, it will encourage countries such as China and India to develop and deploy nuclear and cleaner coal.
Read More
Saudi Arabia Mulls Gas Network Extension With UAE, Oman
5 Countries Eye Building 2 Nuclear Reactors in Saudi Arabia
The emergence of low-cost CCS still probably favours gas more than coal, though it would boost both over nuclear.
Leading gas exporters should monitor technological progress on coal CCS and on advanced nuclear and keep an eye on the regulatory landscape and public opinion concerning nuclear in the key growth markets.
The report said the negative outlook for coal and nuclear is quite favourable for gas. Major gas exporters like Qatar can and should gain market share as old coal and nuclear plants in North America and Europe are closed down.
At the same time, coal is set to stagnate in the main emerging Asian economies, and nuclear to grow, but not dramatically.
However, this line of development does rely on gas being perceived as a secure, relatively affordable and accessible fuel, the report said. If gas is priced expensively, China, India and other major Asian states will rely more on coal and are likely to deploy more nuclear power too.
To avoid major surprises, leading gas exporters should monitor the technological, regulatory and public opinion landscape for advanced nuclear and coal CCS in the key markets: North America, Europe, China, Russia and India.
