A corrective USD decline is picking up steam. Levels to expect in a few days are GBPUSD 1.89, AUDUSD .8950, and NZDUSD .7150.
Be sure to check the Day Ahead Technicals, everyday following the New York close.
Not much has changed regarding the EURUSD. A corrective 4th wave advance is either complete at 1.4981 or still in progress. If still in underway, then 1.5083 / 1.5152 is the targeted reversal area. A larger correction to the mentioned levels is possible, but the advance from 1.4815 is clearly in 3 waves and therefore corrective; leaving the EURUSD vulnerable to additional weakness as long as price is below 1.4981.
Things are playing out as expected with the USDJPY. “Bigger picture, we maintain that wave Y (the third wave in a 3 wave advance from 95.72) is underway from 103.76 and will end in the 113.25-116.65 zone (Fibo levels from the 124.13-95.72 drop) and give way to a long term reversal. The rally from 103.76 is probably the first zigzag in a double zigzag (as wave Y), so expectations are for a drop to reach the 38.2% of 103.76-110.40 (107.86).” The USDJPY fell to 108.36 before surging higher in impulsive fashion. The pair may be setting up for a move through 110.40. Support is at 109.00.
Cable is attempting a 4th wave rally. The target area is 1.8920-1.9119. This is the low of the former 4th wave of one less degree and the 38.2% of 1.9928-1.8618. Ideally, price remains above 1.8685 near term.
The USDCHF has nearly reached the initial objective (already) of 1.0986 (the 100% extension of .9647-1.0624/1.0010. A short term resistance line continues to hold and we expect a decline to at least 1.0740. The drop should prove corrective and give way to a 5th wave and new high (above 1.0924).
The USDCAD should continue to slide, possibly to the 38.2% of .9991-1.0726 at 1.0445. We wrote yesterday that “even if this is not ‘the’ top (end of the advance from .9055), then we would still expect a deeper decline from current levels.” As the pattern has evolved, we are viewing the decline from 1.0726 as wave 4 within the advance from .9974 (which is larger wave C). Former resistance at 1.05 is also potential support.
We wrote yesterday that “short term channel support should lead to a larger advance from near current price. Resistance begins at .7082.” We maintain that there are 5 waves lower from .7761 and that a corrective advance is underway towards .7180-.7400 (Fibo zone). As the advance matures, we’ll be better able to pinpoint resistance. Near term, price should remain above .6971.
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