Euro Breaks Short Term Support Line
Japanese Yen Rejected At Triangle Resistance
British Pound Interim Support
Swiss Franc Short Term Trendline
Canadian Dollar Rejects 1.1400
Australian Dollar Holds .7600
New Zealand Dollar Rally Looks Impulsive
EURUSD The larger triangle scenario continues to play out. This pattern favors a decline in what would complete the 5 wave triangle. Bearish targets going forward are at the 38.2% fibo of 1.2483-1.2902 at 1.2742 and the 61.8% at 1.2644. Bolstering the view for a short term decline is the break of the short term trendline (see chart below). Short term momentum, as evidenced by hourly RSI, is below 50 and decreasing.
USDJPY Resistance from the triangle that has formed since the end of October has held this mornings rally in check. We placed triangle resistance at 118.25 yesterday and the pair rallied to 118.29 this morning but has since declined to the 118.00 figure. It takes a break below the low today at 117.73 to suggest additional bearish potential. Triangle support is at 117.32. A rally through the upper end of the triangle and the 11/9 high at 118.58 gives scope to the 78.6% fibo of 119.86-116.54 at 119.15.
GBPUSD Cable found support yesterday at the 50% fibo of 1.8515-1.9178 at 1.8835. Still, the rhythm on the daily chart is telling. That is, recent declines in GBPUSD have lasted 4 to 5 days and been sharp (like this one). Today is the fourth day of the current decline, so the 61.8% at 1.8769 looks feasible. Former support at 1.8945 is now resistance.
USDCHF The rally off of the 6 month trendline keeps the near term picture bullish although yesterdays rejection of strength at 1.2520 does not warrant an aggressive bullish stance. Still, short term structure remains constructive as long as price remains above the short term trendline from 1.2346 (see chart below). A break above 1.2520 gives scope to a test of the 1.2600 figure and the 61.8% fibo of 1.2769-1.2346 at 1.2607.
USDCAD The USDCAD break above 1.1413 failed to materialize into the short squeeze to 1.1456 that we proposed yesterday. Still, the break above 1.1372 keeps the larger bias bullish with former resistance now support at 1.1372 and 1.1342. The long wick on yesterdays candle combined with the rejection of 1.1413 at the upper Bollinger band (daily) does suggest a deeper correction lower (short term) before a more pronounced rally commences to test 1.1456.
AUDUSD The AUDUSD never made it to .7590 but our suggestion that a bottom was near seems to be correct as the pair has managed to push through .7650 this morning. Obstacles for bulls going forward are the 11/10 high at .7697 and the 11/1 high at .7766. The proximity of the swing low at .7614 (11/13 low) limits downside risk. A break below there would negate the bullish construction and target the 50% of .7413-.7766 at .7590.
NZDUSD Kiwi may have found a bottom at the 78.6% fibo of .6532-.6750 at .6579 (low yesterday at .6574). The rally off of the fibo level is impulsive and has exceeded the last two days highs. The next resistance level is the 11/9 high at .6673. A potential short term resisting line is near .6660. A push above the confluence of that line and the mentioned .6673 warrants a more aggressive bullish approach. Price must remain above .6574 to keep the bullish implications from the impulsive rally to .6645 intact.
