Damages inflicted by Al-Aqsa Flood operation could be irreparable
ALBAWABA – Damages incurred by the Israeli occupation authorities, as a result of the Hamas-led Palestinian resistance operation dubbed Al-Aqsa Flood, go beyond the loss of lives and property, having tolled hundreds of dead settlers and soldiers in less than 48 hours.
There is no telling, right now, what the actual cost is of the latest offensive by Hamas and the Palestinian resistance fighters against the various Israeli targets and assets across the southern and south-central parts of occupied Palestine. But it is safe to assume that at least some of the damage will be irreparable.
Estimated direct damages of Al-Aqsa Flood operation
It is usually difficult to assess the exact costs of war, especially in the early stages of a conflict. But in the case of Palestine’s decades-long struggle for liberation, and in the particular situation of Gaza’s resistance to Israeli incursions and onslaughts, there have been some points of reference to work with.
Of course, in any case of armed conflict, the costs of war encompass both tangible and intangible damages, both short-term and long-term.
Al-Aqsa Flood Operation: Israeli Iron Dome air defence system (R) intercepts rockets (L) launched from Gaza City on May 13, 2023. (Photo by MOHAMMED ABED / AFP)
Back in 2021, former chairman of the Fisher Institute's space research center Tal Inbar estimated the cost of Iron Dome's interceptors at $50,000-$100,000 each, as reported by Anadolu Agency.
According to CNN, the actual cost per interceptor was estimated back then at some $61,000.
Earlier in May this year, Al-Jazeera reported that the Iron Dome’s interception capabilities have receded to 90 percent, compared to more than 95 percent back in May 2021. The Palestinians in Gaza had launched a defensive attack on the Israelis in response to the violations committed by the occupation in Jerusalem.
Day one of Al-Aqsa Flood cost the Israelis nearly one billion in direct damages
Commander-in-Chief of the Al-Qassam Brigades, the military wing of the Hamas movement, Muhammad al-Deif, announced Saturday that the first batch amounted to some 5,000 rockets. Assuming the Iron Dome was able to intercept 90 percent of the rockets, that would amount to 4,500 interceptors having been fired in just the first 24 hours of the Al-Aqsa Flood operation. That is also assuming it takes one interceptor to take down one rocket.
At $61,000 per interceptor, that is $274.5 million in direct costs, at best, just to fend off Hamas’ rockets.
Notably, independent fact-checking platform Eekad reported Sunday that the dome’s accuracy is even lower than officially claimed, citing Israeli sources, who reportedly estimate the system’s effectiveness at 84 percent.
Meanwhile, Israeli newspaper Haaretz, citing military experts, reported that the dome’s effectiveness, vis-a-vis its accuracy, is much lower, and is estimated at 5 to 40 percent.
Al-Aqsa Flood Operation: Rockets fired by Palestinian fighters from Gaza City are intercepted by the Israeli Iron Dome defence missile system in the early hours of October 8, 2023. (Photo by EYAD BABA / AFP)
There are no reports on the actual number of rockets that hit their marks in the Israeli-occupied territories, from Tel Aviv southwards, towards the settlements surrounding Gaza and beyond. However, from the damages incurred so far, and from media reports, it could not have exceeded a few hundred, maybe a thousand.
That means that the dome intercepted 4,000-4,500 rockets.
At an accuracy rate of 40 percent, which is the highest estimate reported by Haarets, the dome system will have to deploy 2.2 interceptors against every Gazan rocket.
Al-Aqsa Flood operation: Rockets are fired from Gaza City towards Israeli-occupied territories on October 7, 2023. (Photo by MAHMUD HAMS / AFP)
The worse – not worst – case scenario is that the Israelis deployed 8,800-9,900 interceptors just to take down 4,000-4,500 rockets, out of the total of 5,000 claimed by Hamas.
Pricing in the $61,000 cost per interceptor, the Israelis would have incurred somewhere between $536.8 million and $603.9 million in interceptors alone, just on the first day of the Palestinian breakthrough.
More so, according to Defence News, the Merkava 4 tank costs around $3.5 million per unit for the Israeli military.
By midday Sunday, Eekad reported more than five Merkava 4 tanks destroyed by the Palestinians, at an estimated cost of $17.5 million. In addition to 15 armored tracked vehicles of various undisclosed makes and models and more than 10 armed vehicles, including Humvees and jeeps. Not to mention those seized by the Palestinians.
Al-Aqsa Flood Operation: Palestinians return to Gaza City driving an Israeli Humvee that was seized after fighters entered Israel by land on October 7, 2023. (Photo by MAJDI FATHI / AFP)
Additionally, it costs more than $10 million to train and equip an Israeli soldier, according to a Jerusalem Post story, dating back to 2017.
At least 26 Israeli soldiers were killed in the first day of Al-Aqsa Flood operation, Haaretz reported, citing official Israeli military figures.
Adjusted for inflation, using the US Inflation Calculator tool, the monetary toll of 26 Israeli soldiers dying, including equipment, amounts to some $325.6 million in total.
All in all, this brings the total direct cost of the Al-Aqsa Flood operation for the Israeli occupation authorities close to nearly one billion dollars.
Conversely, this is where the costs and damages of the Palestinians’ Al-Aqsa Flood operation go beyond the money.
Al-Aqsa Flood may have dismantled the myth of Israeli military, technological superiority
Israeli military technology and industry is considered among the best in the world, and the most competitive and innovative. The Israelis have long taken pride in the cost-effectiveness and presumed superiority of their technology and equipment.
For example, the Merkava is considered one of the best and most powerful tanks in the world, and it is half the price of the American main battle tank, Abrams.
Al-Aqsa Flood Operation: Palestinians take control of an Israeli tank after crossing the border fence from Khan Yunis in the southern Gaza Strip on October 7, 2023. (Photo by SAID KHATIB / AFP)
The same applies to the Iron Dome system, in that it costs 95 percent less than the American Patriot air defence system, according to the Defense News website.
Marketed and promoted as the ideal air defence system against drones and mid- to close-range airborne threats, the Iron Dome now faces – once again – another challenge to its self-proclaimed superiority.
Israeli arms sales in 2022 hit a record high, at $12.5 billion, according to the Times of Israel newspaper, with air defence systems, including missiles and rockets, comprising 19 percent of total sales.
Al-Aqsa Flood disrupted Israeli trading, commercial life, incurring tens of billions in financial damages
Stock exchange in Tel Aviv took a significant hit in the wake of the Al-Aqsa Flood operation, with financial damages exceeding $20 billion, AlJazeera reported.
Tel Aviv Stock Exchange indexes lost more than 6 percent on Sunday, having already dropped 4 percent at open earlier in the day, while government bond fell by up to 3 percent, according to Reuters.
Last month, chief economist at the Israeli finance ministry Shmuel Abramson said foreign investments recorded a 60 percent decline in the first quarter of 2023, compared to the same durations in 2020 and 2022.
Foreign investment into the Israeli economy was estimated at around $28 billion in 2022, according to Aljazeera.
Unrest and uncertainty in the Israeli legislative and business environments have caused symptoms of economic turmoil to surface in recent months, apart from mounting security concerns.
Al-Aqsa Flood Operation: Smoke billows from a power station in Ashkelon on October 7, 2023, as barrages of rockets were fired from the Gaza enclave into Israeli-occupied territory. (Photo by AHMAD GHARABLI / AFP)
The already-weak Israeli shekel has fallen to the lowest level in seven years, AlJazeera reported Sunday, having already been on a downward trajectory for months.
The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development expects the Israeli economy to slow to 2.9 percent in 2023 from the 3 percent that was expected, and to 3.3 percent in 2024 from 3.4 percent previously.
In total, the Palestinian offensive has cost the Israelis more than $21 billion in direct and immediate economic and financial losses.
These estimates do not include losses in property or real estate, further military preparations or operations, or the political cost of this Israeli military, political and intelligence failure. Nor do they include long-term costs, such as the costs to rehabilitate the Gaza envelope settlements, should the Israelis somehow emerge from this deluge of Palestinian freedom fighters.
Needless to say, the persistence of the Palestinians’ Al-Aqsa Flood operation and the possible implosion of internal frontiers, on top of it all, would definitely further exacerbate the Israeli economic predicament.
