Euro Rally Stalls
Japanese Yen Holds Above 118
British Pound Rallies From Lows
Swiss Franc Stronger Through Trendline
Canadian Dollar Challenges Prior High
Australian Dollar Rally Is Corrective
New Zealand Dollar More Convincing Than Aussie
EURUSD The larger triangle scenario continues to play out following Fridays 90 pips rally. Still, this pattern favors a decline in what would complete the 5 wave triangle. Targets going forward and points of potential reversal (reverse to the upside) are at the 38.2% fibo of 1.2483-1.2902 at 1.2742 and the 61.8% at 1.2644. A short term resistance line from a bearish channel is just above current price. The lower end of the channel is support near 1.2750. Only a break above 1.2902 suggests greater bullish potential.
USDJPY The USDJPY rallied above the 61.8% of 118.47-117.48 at 118.09 this morning, hitting 118.19. A confident directional bias eludes us until a break from the recent 117.12-118.58 occurs. A break above 118.58 exposes the 78.6% of 119.87-116.54 at 119.14 and a break below 117.12 targets the 11/1 low at 116.54. Short term momentum favors bulls with hourly RSI greater than 50.
GBPUSD We remarked Friday that a short term double bottom at the fibo along with bullish divergence with hourly RSI suggests that the pair is forming a bottom. Cable has rallied over 100 pips from Fridays low at 1.8834 to the 38.2% of 1.9178-1.8824 at 1.8964. The c0nfluence of the 10 and 20 day SMAs at 1.8963/90 reinforces resistance at the current juncture. Additional strength targets the 61.8% fibo of the decline from 1.9178 at 1.9047. A break below todays low at 1.8931 gives scope to greater bearish potential.
USDCHF The USDCHF has broken back below the 7 month trendline drawn off of the May and August lows. Still, a daily close below the 11/10 low at 1.2346 is required to confidently suggest a bearish bias. Fridays rally reversed just before the 200 day SMA at 1.2540 and the decline since has been convincing. A push above todays high at 1.2445 would cloud the picture.
USDCAD The USDCAD bulls have managed to challenge the 7/28 high at 1.1456. A setback has taken place from Fridays high at 1.1475 to 1.1420. Still, the larger uptrend remains in place above the support line drawn off of the 9/1, 9/28 and 10/30 lows. Price above a steeper and shorter term trendline drawn off of the 10/30 and 11/10 lows keeps the short term trend up. Those lines are on the chart below.
AUDUSD The AUDUSD has challenged the .7700 figure this morning. Still, the rally from .7614 is corrective in nature as the waves are overlapping. Also, price is right at a resistance line from a short term bullish channel which may serve to limit immediate upside potential. A break below .7614 is required to suggest greater bearish potential. Strength past .7700 exposes the 11/1 high at .7766.
NZDUSD The rally off of the 11/15 low at .6574 has challenged the 61.8% of .6750-.6574 at .6683 this morning. A support line on the daily drawn off of the 10/2, 10/26 and 11/15 lows must remain intact in order to keep a bullish bias. The next bullish target is the 11/7 high at .6726. The confluence of the 10 and 20 day SMAs are support at .6642/50.
