Euro holds below 61.8% fib off 1.3740-1.3115 move. Dollar/Yen finally breaks above key 100.00 psychological barriers. Cable extends gains to eye retest of key 1.4990 highs. Dollar/Swiss attempting to carve out fresh higher low above 1.1165. Dollar/Cad setbacks limited to rising channel support. Australian Dollar seen testing yearly highs into early week. New Zealand Dollar see sharp pullback from daily highs; direction still unclear.
EUR/USD
| EUR/USD – The market has finally broken out from the latest sideways trade, surging above the recent consolidation highs at 1.3345 to 1.3515 thus far. The 61.8% fib retracement off of the 1.3740-1.3115 move comes in by 1.3500 and we would expect to see some pullback from here with the market still caught in some broader directionless trade. Next key level to watch above comes in at 1.3595 (27Mar high), while a break back below 1.3365 would be required to take the short-term pressure off of the topside. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL. |
|
USD/JPY
| USD/JPY – We continue to favor additional upside over the coming sessions with the market having finally taken out psychological barriers at 100.00, to expose the major 87.15 double bottom objective by 104.00. Only a close back under 98.20 delays. Thursday’s close above the 200-Day SMA (first time since September 2008) reaffirms bullish outlook. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL. |
|
GBP/USD
| GBP/USD – Although recent price action would suggest that we could be in the process of carving out a material base, we are not convinced just yet and still see the market locked in a more significant bear trend. A break and close back above 1.4990 (9Feb high) would be required to shift us into the bullish camp and until then, we continue to look for opportunities to sell into rallies in anticipation of a resumption of setbacks. We will wait for daily readings to cross into overbought before considering fresh shorts. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.
|
|
USD/CHF
| USD/CHF – Setbacks have found support for now as expected in the low 1.1300’s which acts as previous range resistance turned support. From here we see risks for a resumption of gains back above 1.1500 and through the recent trend highs at 1.1550. A confluence of moving averages in the 1.1500’s initially capped rallies but the next attempt to the topside should easily exceed the SMAs. Only back under 1.1165 negates outlook and gives reason for pause. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.
|
|
