Euro 200-Day SMA comes into focus. Dollar/Yen pulls back sharply, but additional setbacks limited. Cable above 50-Day SMA; can it hold. Dollar/Swiss breaks range but runs into 200-Day SMA. Dollar/Cad still constructive despite pullback. Australian Dollar could continue to test 2009 highs. New Zealand Dollar kisses 70 on daily RSI.
EUR/USD
| EUR/USD – The market has gone parabolic over the past 24 hours with the price surging through the latest topside barriers at 1.3700 ahead of the latest minor pullback. Daily studies are now showing well overbought with the RSI above 70. However, given the intensity of the move, there is still scope for additional upside before a much needed and healthy pullback can take place. Next key resistance comes in by 1.3800 (8Jan high), with acceleration on a break to 1.3850-1.3900 (61.8% of 1.4720-1.2455/200-Day SMA). Back under 1.3415 is required to delay. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL. |
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USD/JPY
| USD/JPY – The market has now reached its measured move objective off of the head & shoulders top by 99.70, and after slightly exceeding the previous 2009 high/major double neckline by 94.60 to 93.55, should finally found some support. There is a confluence of support by current levels in the form of the previous double bottom neckline, the 50% fib retrace off of the 87.15-99.70 move and the 50/100-Day SMAs. As such we would look for a fresh medium-term higher low to carve out at current levels ahead of the next major upside extension beyond 100.00. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL. |
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GBP/USD
| GBP/USD – Although the pair has now broken back above the 50-Day SMA, rallies above the moving average have proved to be fleeting since the onset of the major downtrend back in August 2008. The overall structure is still grossly bearish and a break back above the 1.4990 medium-term lower top from February 9 would ultimately be required to shift the structure. Daily studies however still show room to run with the next key resistance coming in by the 100-Day SMA at 1.4675. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.
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USD/CHF
| Usd/Chf – The latest sharp pullbacks below 1.1315 have signaled an end to the multi day range and opened the door to the current drop back to 1.1165 thus far. However, the pair should find some decent support at current levels in the form of the 50% fib retracement off of the 1.0370-1.1970 move (1.1170) and the 200-Day SMA (1.1195). Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.
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